Wednesday, 22 March 2017

TRUMP IMPEACHMENT - THE RULES

The Sun King at Mar a Lago, Florida


Will Trump be impeached? Or is it just a liberal fantasy?

Read this detailed article in The Guardian newspaper. Presidents can be removed:

In cases of presidential disability.

In case of criminality or emergency.

British bookmakers Ladbrokes are today 25 March 2017 - offering even money on Trump being impeached. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.
Donald Trump is the President of the United States. But if oddsmakers are right, there’s a good chance that he won’t hold office for that long. There are many reasons Trump could be impeached or resign before his first term ends.

THE ARTICLE ADDRESSES: 

Trump denied inappropriate ties to Moscow

President’s failure to divest from his real estate, hotel and branding businesses

President's failure to publish 1980-2016 tax returns - what is he hiding?

The cabinet, might declare the president unfit to serve.

For Treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors. 

For obstruction of justice, abuse of power or defiance of subpoenas.

25th amendment: power may be taken from a president owing to disability or inability.

“Unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office” needs 2/3rds of Congress

Impeach Trump?  Yes - 46% of Americans in a Public Policy Polling survey 

Impeach Trump Now group is behind the petition

Investigations into associations with Russia by Trump or his proxies

It would be up to the current vice-president, Pence, to pardon Trump or not

If the people turn on the president, Congress may follow

Trump sits at 37% approval, 24 points behind the average for first-term presidents

Not mentioned in The Guardian are acts demeaning to the office of presidency, e.g. "Bed-wetting Orgies in Moscow Hotels" - or the fact that Donald spent two campaigning years deeply insulting all the USA institutions and politicians, and many foreign countries. He must assume he is immune to retaliation from the most powerful families and groups; which backs up the psychiatric diagnosis of the serious mental illness, Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD). He can dish it out - but he can't take it. Trump thinks he is above and beyond all social and political checks and balances that curb the rest of us "Losers" and keep America safe from mad dictators exercising power. 

TRUMP'S SICKNESS PUTS WORLD AT RISK
Trump - Russia Dossier - Wikipedia

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3259984/Trump-Intelligence-Allegations.pdf   The Moscow Dossier

"LOCK HIM UP" "LOCK HIM UP"  "LOCK HIM UP"  "LOCK HIM UP" 

Tuesday, 14 March 2017  "DONALD IS SANE" GCHQ BEGS TO DIFFER

Friday, 17 March 2017

LUX-LEAKS TAX-FRAUDS - $ BILLIONS FOR SOURCE NATIONS

American accountants are jailed with tax-evading clients.

Antoine Deltour is the chief whistleblower in the Luxleaks, which has revealed in November 2014 a huge system of tax-saving manoeuvres created by dozens of big international companies. At present he is being sued by the Luxembourg justice.

FRAUDULENT CONSPIRACIES: Will Luxembourg, and the source nations, prosecute the tax-evaders and the tax-planners (including PWC) for fraudulent documentation and fraudulent tax-returns? 

In tax-law, worldwide, tax legal transactions must be: 

(1) Not for tax avoidance. 
(2) Necessary commercially - real business. 
(3) On normal commercial terms - not falsified, exaggerated transfer-pricing.
(4) At arms length - not self-invoicing between connected parties. 

Billions of dollars can be recovered by tax-collectors for the countries of origin where the profits were actually earned.  Will your nation demand its money back?

The transactions that shifted billions of dollars to No-Tax-Luxembourg from major tax-regions such as the UK, USA, EU, Pacific-Rim etc. are most probably fictitious invoices, devised after the real trade events - internal (self-invoicing) - and in breach of the four tests above. In America, advisers go to jail with their clients. 

LuxLeaks whistleblower avoids jail after guilty verdict | World news ...


https://www.theguardian.com › World › Luxembourg


29 Jun 2016 - Former PwC employee Antoine Deltour given suspended sentence for theft and violating Luxembourg’s secrecy laws. ... A former employee of PricewaterhouseCoopers has been convicted of theft by a court in Luxembourg following an unprecedented leak of controversial tax deals granted to


16 Mar 2017 — On Wednesday, March 15, more than 100 citizens came to listen to the Court of Appeal's decision on the LuxLeaks case. When the three defendants arrived to hear the verdict, it was therefore, as always, surrounded by their supports and under the encouragement of many citizens !

-- The verdict --

The court upholds a conviction for theft offences, fraudulent maintenance in a database, and laundering of acquired data. Antoine is therefore sentenced to a 6-month suspended jail time and a 1,500 € fine. The other whistleblower, Raphaël Halet, is sentenced to a 1,000 € fine. The journalist Édouard Perrin is acquitted.

-- A small victory... --

Despite the condemnation, we must welcome a certain moral and legal victory: Antoine is acquitted for the charges of breach of professional secrecy and disclosure of trade secrets. For the first time in Europe, a national judge recognizes the justificatory fact of whistleblowing in the disclosure of professional secrecy, in good faith and in the public interest. This judgment constitutes an undeniable legal step forward.

-- ... but a blatant lack of courage --

By insisting on a conviction at all costs, the Court of Appeal clearly lacked courage. Antoine is acquitted as a whistleblower for having transmitted the documents to the journalist, but sentenced for the acquisition of the very same documents!
This condemnation, symbolically heavy, confirms the need for European legislative progress on whistleblowers' protection.

-- And now? --

Antoine will now read carefully the judgment of the Court of Appeal and take a decision of either appealing in cassation or, on the contrary, stopping judicial fight. Let’s wish him strength through this decision to be taken with a cool head and with the advice of his lawyers.
The Support Committee and all the citizens accompanying him through his fight will be on Antoine’s side, whatever he decides!


ICIJ - The investigation was conducted by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. The countries of origin should reward ICIJ with 10% of all back-taxes and fines recovered. 

Tuesday, 14 March 2017

"DONALD IS SANE" GCHQ BEGS TO DIFFER.

GCHQ (British Intelligence) bugged me in Trump Tower - And ate my pet hampster! Horrible ! True ! Fact ! 

I, Donald J Trump, your President, read this on Fox News - the most reliable news agency in the galaxy - owned by my special friend Mr Murdoch. - Fabulous man ! Wholly reliable ! Impeccable source ! Unimpeachable data ! Now I'm off to play golf with my gold clubs and golden balls, at golden Mar a Lago. 



17 March 2017 - WHITE HOUSE BRIEFING: - Sean Spicer - "The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth - so help me God"
...Mr Spicer then went on to repeat claims of British intelligence involvement first made on Fox News earlier this week by Andrew Napolitano, a former New Jersey judge* and legal expert for the network.  https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/sean-spicer-gchq-bugged-trump-towers-barack-obama/
Another Murdoch
news-source. "As good as Fox"
Mr Spicer quoted him as saying: “Three intelligence sources have informed Fox News that President Obama went outside the chain of command – he didn’t use the NSA, he didn’t use the CIA, he didn’t use the FBI and he didn’t use the department of justice – he used GCHQ.”
Mr Spicer added: “The bottom line is: the president said last night he will be providing additional information,” he concluded.  ...Dribble, dribble, dribble.
*Judge Napolitano resigned and became a pop-TV-show judge.


GCHQ has dismissed a claim that British spies were employed to bug Trump Tower as "utterly ridiculous".
*******
13 March 2017 - Is Trump sane?  
 2. Relax, Trump is stone cold sane"

Dr. Keith Ablow is a psychiatrist and member of  the Fox News Medical A-Team
By Dr. Keith Ablow
Published February 15, 2017

Let me issue the standard disclaimer of psychiatrists who discuss the mental health of public figures: I have not personally examined President Trump.

Now, let me put to rest the concerns of Sen. Al Franken and political commentators John Oliver and Andrew Sullivan and anyone else who publicly or privately has questioned the president’s sanity:
Donald Trump is stone cold sane.
“President Obama bugged my phones” “Climate Change is a Chinese hoax”  “Scientists are simply taking tax-dollars for no results” “Hillary Clinton is a criminal” “I love Putin” “Look at me at my gold painted front door”  “I’m going to build  a Mexican wall” “Help the poor by enriching the richest USA families by billions of tax-dollars” “Bring back torture” "I am a Vietnam veteran (draft dodger)" "Smart - I pay no taxes" "Smart - I don't pay suppliers" "My casinos never go bust" "I have an IQ of 186 or more even" 

When a man acquires billions of dollars through complex real estate transactions, invests in many countries, goes on to phenomenal success in television and turns his name into a worldwide brand, it is very unlikely that he is mentally unstable.
Inherited $200 million of NY homes which are now worth $2,000 million+ via market rises – rents at 5% = $100M income a year. Thanks Mum and Dad. At least 14 of his “deals” ended in bankrupt companies and 3,500 lawsuits for not paying suppliers. He browbeats claimants via huge court costs and Mafia connections. (Cay-Johnson Biog)

When the same man obviously enjoys the love and respect of his children and his wife, who seem to rely on him for support and guidance, it is extraordinarily unlikely that he is mentally unstable.
3 glamour models migrant wives. The current one lives apart and is said to be an abused wife. He brags of infidelity and cavorts in Moscow hotels in sex-orgies – despite being warned of Russian cameras.

When the same man walks into the political arena and deftly defeats 16 Republican opponents and then the Democratic heir-apparent to a two-term president’s administration, the odds of that man being mentally unstable become vanishingly thin.
Amazing – the power of television. Hitler was also good at propaganda and rallies. And extravagant broken promises.

And when that very same man attracts to his team the kind of intellect and gravitas represented (to name just a few) by Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Dr. Ben Carson, Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis, a retired Marine Corps general and commander of the U.S. Central Command, he cannot be mentally deranged. Period. It is a statistical impossibility.
Of course there are millions who would take those plum jobs at tax-payers’ expense. It’s a step up from the KKK. Mattis is under orders – It is worrying that he obeys them.

Those who assert otherwise are political opportunists, or fools, or both (and I am thinking here, in particular, of Sen. Franken).
President Trump is the first human being to win this nation’s highest office without having held any other political office or serving as a general. Most political pundits thought his quest was pure folly. Most journalists assessed his chances as zero. So who was laboring under quasi-delusional thinking? Answer: Not Donald J. Trump.
Hitler was mocked as “The little Austrian Corporal” by Germany’s elite. He too stirred the mob and swept to power. He too was insane. There are many other mad dictators who came from non-political backgrounds.

Anecdotally, by the way, I have never had one bad Trump experience. Not one. I own several of his ties — all of them of the highest quality. I have stayed in his hotels and never had a single complaint (and I am a born complainer). I have eaten in his New York restaurant — flawless service, excellent food. I own an apartment at Trump Place in Manhattan. Impeccable design, sturdy construction, fabulous amenities. A mentally unstable man would be unlikely to deliver superior products across multiple industries, don’t you think?
…and the bed wasn’t damp from Trump’s golden showers.  If Trump remained as a Trust Fund Babe, deranged property tycoon and hotelier, that’s fine – but he has the nuclear codes – and he is bonkers.

If you’re still worried about the mental stability of the president, note this: The stock market doesn’t like instability. Investors, en masse, can take the measure of a man pretty darn well. The stock market has hit record high after record high since Trump’s election, and if you think that’s an accident, or that investors have all been fooled, it’s time to start wondering about your own capacity for rational thought.
Trump represents wealthy business men. The Trump family fortune is based on tax-dollars poured into New York housing after WW2 – which Fred Trump built  and hung onto. Trump promises massive tax-dollar spending on defence and infrastructure. That’s good for business. He also promised to collect tax-evasion money – but the markets know he doesn’t mean it. Spending common folk’s tax dollars is always welcome.

I should note that nothing I am saying should besmirch the reputations of men like President Abraham Lincoln or Sir Winston Churchill, both of whom are said to have fought the ravages of major depression or bipolar disorder. One was instrumental in ridding America of slavery. The other was instrumental in saving the world from tyranny. Mahatma Gandhi, by the way, also reportedly suffered from depression. Psychiatric illness does not, a priori, disqualify a person from rendering extraordinary service to mankind.
They get depressed because they are sane – governing the violently insane.

Mind you, neither Lincoln nor Churchill nor Gandhi led a nation after becoming a business sensation and television star. That trifecta defines one man: President Donald J. Trump.
They didn’t inherit $200M worth $2,000M today. Churchill was famously broke most of his career. Liberace was a TV super-rich star – and “Cried all the way to the bank”. It doesn’t make such celebrities fit to run the country.

Now, think about those who are rabble-rousing about the president’s mental status. Take Sen. Al Franken. He’s all worried about the president allegedly overestimating the crowd size at his inauguration. But Franken is allied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who asserted she is Native American, when there is no evidence of that whatsoever.
And they’re calling Trump’s sanity into question? Really, you can’t make this stuff up. 

Dr. Keith Ablow is a psychiatrist (Where?)  and member of  the Fox News Medical A-Team



MORE TRUMPETING:  

Saturday, 11 March 2017

YOUR DUAL UK & EU ASSOCIATE CITIZENSHIP


KEEP YOUR EXISTING DUAL NATIONALITY RIGHTS. 

UK Citizens and our families do not have to lose all the privileges of EU citizenship. UK law allows dual citizenship which many wealthy people already enjoy. Contact your MEP NOW, and your MP, to press for the right to keep your EU passporting rights, even if the UK quitters force us out of The United States of Europe. 16.8 million thinking people voted to REMAIN - with our families that makes about 35 million people. We can have both. Maybe the 17 million Leavers will bugger off to British Overseas Colonies - and take the pressure off our services and resources. Read below what President Junker said in July 2016 - but he will change his mind. 



Brexit: UK 'associate EU citizenship' to be fast-tracked - BBC News

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38264203

9 Dec 2016 - The European Parliament's top Brexit negotiator says he plans to fast-track a proposal to offer UK nationals "associate EU citizenship".

President Junker will change his mind since this July 2016 email - individual UK citizens can stay in Europe. 

*********

Subject: FW: BREXIT - VIRTUAL DUAL EU CITIZENSHIP

From: President.Juncker@ec.europa.eu [mailto:President.Juncker@ec.europa.eu]
Sent: 19 July, 2016 10:08 AM
To: noel@noelhodson.com
Subject: RE: BREXIT - VIRTUAL DUAL EU CITIZENSHIP

Thank you for sharing your views with me following the result of the United Kingdom's Referendum.

I am sad about the choice of the British people. The European Commission worked hard to keep the United Kingdom in the European Union.

European leaders offered the United Kingdom a fair deal that reflected their hope that the United Kingdom remained part of the European Union.

This is an unprecedented situation but the European Union will stand strong and uphold its core values of promoting peace and the well-being of its peoples.

I truly hope that the United Kingdom will be a close partner of the European Union in the future.

I wish you well.


European Commission
200, rue de la Loi,
1049 Bruxelles


From: Noel Hodson [mailto:noel@noelhodson.com]
Sent: Thursday, June 30, 2016 10:33 AM
To: CAB JUNCKER PRESIDENT
Cc: tracy.rodger@haymarket.com; scottish.ministers@gov.scot; Nicola.Sturgeon.msp@scottish.parliament.uk; john.humphrys@bbc.co.uk
Subject: BREXIT - VIRTUAL DUAL EU CITIZENSHIP

Address:
European Commission
Rue de la Loi / Wetstraat 200
1049 1049 Brussels
Belgium


30 June 2016.

CC – Lord Heseltine, Nicola Sturgeon MSP

Dear Mr Juncker,

BREXIT – VIRTUAL DUAL EU CITIZENSHIP

Dividing the alleged £350 million pounds per week between the 16 million Britons who voted to Remain, is £22 per week each. I would gladly pay this to the European Union for the privilege of full Citizenship and to be a member of the vital European project. Many UK citizens have dual nationality, so I could also retain my UK Passport.

My citizenship would include trade access for my business, borderless travel and all the advantages of belonging to the single market. In turn the 16 million UK-Virtual-Citizens would pledge open-market terms to all EU Citizens. Movement of labour might be done on a person-by-person job and home swap register – though such details will need the best EC brains to rapidly resolve. The South-East of England has 427 people per square kilometre; densely populated areas might require exceptional terms.

VIRTUAL-DUAL-EU-CITIZENSHIP might be applied to all willing participants in all European States. It will be a highly prestigious club that all thinking people will want to join. It could be readily and quickly organised on computers. In due course, the EC might negotiate a Double-Taxation-Agreement with the UK, to grant tax relief on our £22 per week contributions.

Non-EU-citizens, for example among the UK’s the alleged 52%, would be subject to the rules they wish to adopt.

Yours sincerely

Noel Hodson, Oxford

Noel Hodson - Director

13th March 2017 - TRUMP in ISRAEL


I never use Facebook – Its far too messy - I don’t know how it works - or if its private - or can I control content - or is it broadcast etc. I have an account, as advised, to (try to) promote my books. I think it’s mostly for kids.

But, Yes - the Jewish Daily article was emailed by a close friend. It expresses views from yet another perspective about Trump. My guess is that Israel hopes for major concessions from Trump which Obama was cautious about endorsing. (So in today's soundbite idiots' world - "Trump saintly - Obama evil"). Time will tell if Trump will keep his promises (move US Embassy to Jerusalem etc. etc. etc.). You well know by now that I think he is demented, suffering Narcissistic Personality Disorder, and as the mainstream US media says "he is a pathological liar". Will he help or hinder Israel's peaceful, best intentions? I think Trump's crazy universal aggression, mentored for 25 years by the Mafia's lawyer Roy Cohn,  and his paranoia will only create violence - wherever he treads. And he is too elderly to change. For the sake of the world "Lock Him Up". Where did they isolate Napoleon - to contain his war-mongering madness?

PS - I re-watched all the Presidents Men (Watergate). It reminded me that Republicans have used highly funded ($6M) criminal tactics before to distort elections. It's an old, bad habit in US politics. They probably learned it from the Brits – Rotten Boroughs.

Noel


-----Original Message-----
John writes:
Subject: How Obama rigged the Trump investigation

Noel

Sometimes the world works in mysterious ways.

I was looking at your facebook page and found this on it:

Let me know what you think!



Best - John


*****


BREXIT - VIRTUAL DUAL EU CITIZENSHIP = £9.6 B


CC for you. Buy your EU passport now.

Noel HODSON - Author

From: Noel Hodson [mailto:noel@noelhodson.com]
Sent: 27 November 2016 14:40
To: 'President.Juncker@ec.europa.eu' <President.Juncker@ec.europa.eu>; 'tim@timfarron.co.uk' <tim@timfarron.co.uk>; 'info@tonyblairoffice.org' <info@tonyblairoffice.org>; BBC Radio PM (PM@bbc.co.uk) <PM@bbc.co.uk>; Polly Toynbee (polly.toynbee@guardian.co.uk) <polly.toynbee@guardian.co.uk>; 'guy.verhofstadt@europarl.europa.eu' <guy.verhofstadt@europarl.europa.eu>; 'Nick.Clegg.MP@parliament.uk' <Nick.Clegg.MP@parliament.uk>; 'international@theguardian.com' <international@theguardian.com>; 'letters@nytimes.com' <letters@nytimes.com>
Subject: BREXIT - VIRTUAL DUAL EU CITIZENSHIP = £9.6 B

26 NOV 2016  - Dual nationality for Remainers - money calculation £9.6B per annum – It works.
Guardian - Britons could pay to retain the benefits of European Union citizenship after Brexit under plans being considered by MEPs.
The European parliament’s lead Brexit negotiator Guy Verhofstadt said he supported the principle of the idea, which would see UK citizens sending an annual fee to Brussels.

Calculation: EU passport – for a fee

16 million remainers /say couples voted together = 8 million homes x 2.9 persons per home
= 8 x 2.9 = 23.2 million individuals will buy an EU passport
At say, £200 per annum = £4.6 billion
+ A premium for business-passporting – about 5M UK businesses at say £1,0000 per business = £5 billion

Total income is £9.6 billion

From: Noel Hodson [mailto:noel@noelhodson.com]
Sent: 19 July 2016 11:04
To: 'polly.toynbee@guardian.co.uk' <polly.toynbee@guardian.co.uk>; BBC Radio PM (PM@bbc.co.uk) <PM@bbc.co.uk>



Saturday, 25 February 2017

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE


Mel Cooper writes:

John

BREXIT

What precisely did David Cameron ask?  How clearly did he ask it?  what precisely do you have against the EU and are you really confident that leaving before making a severance agreement is not both premature and dangerous? 

My impression of Cameron is of a political lightweight with no real vision and little appetite really to understand or explain either our relationship with the EU, what it does for us, what essentially needs reforming or what benefits us enough already to outweigh our quibbles and dissatisfactions. I think the referendum was premature and both sides never entered into an intelligent debate. I feel both sides cheated but that Brexit was astonishingly dishonest in its NHS promises and several other things. I also believe that the rush to Brexit No Matter What is a potential disaster and that it is not only a betrayal but also gives permission to xenophobic, racist and economically divisive attitudes. 

Marine Le Pen is feeding off Brexit and seemingly legitimised for many because of Brexit. Are you really pleased by that or simply refusing to see the connection? 

Brexit is good news for Trump and Putin too. To me that seems obvious. How can that in itself not give you pause?  

I do despise Cameron for not taking the time to run a positive Remain campaign to educate everyone, myself included, as to why we should vote Remain; and as for Jeremy Quisling Corbyn, that miserable self-righteous and smug Fifth Columnist, he has a lot to answer for. 

Maybe I am wrong but I firmly believe we have been propelled prematurely into abandoning virtually the only hopeful economic and political experiment since WWII. It may have been flawed but it was not broken and many of the things it is accused of are actually the faults of our own governments or are misunderstandings of a wider picture or flat lies promoted by the likes of Nigel Farage. If it is working, essentially, and you (we Brits) have the best deal of anyone in the club, why abandon this for what is bound to be a lesser deal and so much dangerous uncertainty?  

And you are gloating like a Donald Trump. You are crowing that by leaving we win and they lose and may collapse. Even if they are mistaken about some things, would it not be better to remain and work for a Win-Win solution? Maybe in the light of intransigence or stupidity you could consider leaving in 5 years or so but not by a whirlwind Referendum. This is a Parliamentary democracy and, frankly, it is Parliament that should debate this properly, transparently, intellectually and as unemotionally as possible. The Referendum should be advisory and not binding on an issue that is so complex and has successfully a long-term impact unless there is a much, much larger majority. 

Frankly, even if you think Brexit is expedient, at this time and in this way, I perceive it also as unethical. And it is also a major distraction from more urgent and far more troubling problems and very likely to give licence not only for more narrow nationalism and bigotry but for undoing positive progress in all kinds of socially sensitive legislation that was not actually imposed upon us but agreed to. 

I grew up in Canada where Quebec threatened a kind of Brexit scenario on a regular basis. It was always a very bad idea. And if you are being consistent then you have to let Scotland and Northern Ireland go independent too. And yes, logically if you do leave the EU only a hard Brexit makes sense because otherwise you are still in the single market but with a worse deal. But if you prefer Isolationism to working for Reform and think the exhilaration of a clean break outweighs the ideal of the EU, then let's just see how that plays out over the next five years. I foresee a hell of a mess and I think you are promoting an act of self-harm for the UK morally, economically and politically. 

Yours, 

Mel  

More Mel Cooper:

BREXIT - BE VERY AFRAID

ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE






---- John wrote:

Mel

In what way do you think we have a responsibility to the EU when we asked them to change the way they did things and they refused. 

The EU had its chance and did not take it. Wilfully refused to change. The saying is, you've made your bed now lie on it. 

Many other European countries also seeing the light.

Best

John



On 23 Feb 2017, at 14:30, Mel Cooper  wrote:

Hey! I have a better idea. The whole world is falling apart and not fulfilling our dreams so just get into bed, pull the covers over your head and leave that too. After all, what possible responsibility could you have to anyone else? Mel




---- John wrote ----





...and if the link does not allow you to see the whole article here it is:



We must leave the EU quickly – it is falling apart faster than I thought



    Allister Heath



22 February 2017 • 8:37pm



The EU is at its weakest, most vulnerable since its creation, and it is now touch and go whether it survives 2017 or whether it is swept away in a catastrophic populist revolt



Hand over a €60 billion ransom or we won’t even start to discuss a trade deal: that, if Jean-Claude Juncker is to be believed, will be the European Union’s opening gambit ahead of Brexit. Bring it on, I say: the best way to expose a very weak adversary who is pretending to be very strong is to call their bluff. Yet it may never even get to that. At this rate, what is left of the EU could soon be begging us for a trade deal, not the other way around.



The reality is that the EU is edging ever-closer to the abyss: it is at its weakest, most vulnerable since its creation, and it is now touch and go whether it survives 2017 or whether it is swept away in a catastrophic populist revolt.



Trouble is not only brewing in France, where Marine Le Pen keeps gaining ground, but also in the Netherlands, in Greece, in Italy and in eastern Europe. Even if the dissidents fail, for now, the EU will soon be crippled by Britain’s departure, robbing it of its financial centre and billions of pounds a year in net contributions.
"The reality is that the EU is edging ever-closer to the abyss: it is at its weakest, most vulnerable since its creation, and it is now touch and go whether it survives 2017 or whether it is swept away in a catastrophic populist revolt"




The EU’s modus operandi has always been to buy support with German and British money, especially in poorer regions and in France’s agricultural heartlands: when the cash runs out, or is replaced by some euro-tax, tensions will flare up again.



We keep worrying about how Brexit will affect Britain. But the real question is how Brexit will debilitate Brussels, shift the balance of power and ideology on the continent, with smaller, more pro-market nations losing their British champion, and trigger a new dash to yet more unpopular centralising treaties, fuelling more range and anger. Yet the Eurocrats in Brussels and some Remainers in Britain keep on talking as if nothing has changed, as if the UK were leaving some powerful, eternal, economically successful superpower. The status quo is gone, forever, and what is left could be smashed further in just three months’ time.
Marine Le Pen
Marine Le Pen: her election would detonate a neutron bomb under all post-war institutions and the global economic order



The most urgent threat to the EU system comes from Le Pen. Her rise, the extent of which has confounded everybody, is the most important story of the year. Her hard-Left views on big companies, capital and trade are incompatible with EU membership, as are her views on immigration; and she wants to quit the euro.



France’s current, already broken constitutional arrangements and “social contract” wouldn’t survive. Le Pen’s election would detonate a neutron bomb under all post-war institutions and the global economic order; a disorderly French withdrawal from the euro, which would also lead to others such as Italy following suit, would wipe trillions off asset values and trigger another global financial crisis.



Le Pen is now polling around 27 per cent in the first round and while she would still be defeated in the second, surveys suggest she would grab an unprecedented 42 per cent of the electorate. Given that this is a rise of around five percentage points in just a few weeks, anything is now possible, and it reflects the extreme, explosive disenchantment among the French public with decades of economic, social, immigration and crime policies. Even if she loses, the genie will be well and truly out of the bottle.



The likes of Juncker, a Marie Antoinette figure if ever there were one, are now so firmly ensconced in a parallel reality, replete with alternative facts and constructs, that they no longer understand what is happening. They still look at the shiny new Europa building in Brussels, which cost €321 million, and see a powerful, purposeful force for progress, rather than an increasingly loathed, soon-to-be bankrupt bureaucracy whose demise threatens the peace and prosperity of our civilisation.



They labour over their preposterous economic models, telling us how impoverished the UK will become as a result of us loosening our ties with an imaginary fast-growing European economy, not realising that they are the victim of an extraordinary case of cognitive dissonance. They look at the world, but only see what they want to see, rather than what exists.
"Le Pen’s election would detonate a neutron bomb under all post-war institutions and the global economic order; a disorderly French withdrawal from the euro, which would also lead to others such as Italy following suit, would wipe trillions off asset values and trigger another global financial crisis"



One of the reasons why I backed Brexit was because the UK is the only major European country able and willing to extricate itself from the doomed project in a rational, pro-trade, pro-market way. Brexit allows us to show the world that there is a better, more sustainable way to embrace real globalisation without having to hand over power to corrupt, unelected technocrats, and that wanting self-government doesn’t necessitate voting for extreme, destructive National Front-style parties. So far, it looks even better than I hoped, thanks to Theresa May’s enthusiasm for free trade and her commitment to keep the country open to capital and talent.



But where I may have been over-optimistic was that I was hoping that the EU would survive for at least another five years to 2022, giving Britain more time to build new institutions, diversify our trade and show the rest of Europe how it could be done. I was counting on the cyclical economic upturn, which will give all European economies a boost, as well as on an assumption that someone other than Le Pen would win in May, before going on to fail to reform France and thus delivering the country into her hands the next time around. Jacques Chirac failed to reform France, as did Nicolas Sarkozy; one must hope that Francois Fillon would pull it off, but that’s unlikely. Emmanuel Macron, a fashionable neo-Blairite with no party backing, would fail disastrously.




I’m no longer so sure that we have so much time. It still seems likely that the EU will stagger on for a few more years, just as it survived earlier crises, but the day of reckoning is getting ever closer. We need to leave, urgently, to insulate ourselves as best we can from the fallout.



Given the gravity of the situation in France, the House of Lords should be debating how to accelerate our withdrawal from the EU, not how to delay it. Big banks should be planning on shifting bankers to Britain from France, not (in one case) the other way around. Remainers should stop producing anti-Brexit reports that massively exaggerate all of the difficulties caused by leaving, and turn their attention instead to ways of mitigating the fallout from the EU’s implosion.



It is in Britain’s interest that the EU’s demise be carefully managed. Unfortunately, it increasingly looks like the opposite will be true. The Government should be hoping for the best, but planning ever-harder for the worst