Monday, 24 October 2016

REVERSE THE REFERENDUM! DEBATE



16.1 million voted REMAIN – 48%. When we have lost our banks and key industries, creating immense poverty, the LEAVERS will change their votes – but it will be too late.

Noel
******** 





This is an EXCEL chart of the UK constituencies – 
but it shows what the 650 MPs would vote in Parliament - not the referendum result:



CONSTITUENCY MPs
EU STANCE
156
LEAVE  - 24%
485
REMAIN - 75%
9
NOT DECLARED - 1%
650



Sent: 23 October 2016

To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Better off out

Noel

You refer to the disaffected mob and unemployed shipbuilders. 

Do please look at the actual result. 

Every area of the UK voted to leave except for London, Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

You saw the letter I sent you recently. 

The people who Tony-H met in France and Germany are educated intelligent people and they want to leave too, they are envious of us. Ask yourself why if it is all as hunky dory as you think. 

Answer : there is more going on than your analysis encompasses. Why do these people envy our position? Find the answer to that and maybe your eyes will be opened. 

Best


My view of the 30,000 bureaucrats (employed /unelected like all public servants) in Brussels etc., is that they try to make all the trans-border factors work peacefully across 550M people and 28 countries. Most important is food – hence the Common Agricultural Policy, Wine Lakes and Grain Mountains. Then there are Transport, Telecoms, Health, Money, Police/ Security, Energy, Air Pollution, Education Basics, Space, Science, etc. Their job is to action the will of the elected MEPs. Including our scrappy lot from the UK. 30,000 is about the same size as Stockport Council employees – it is not overblown. Most of each Member’s contributions (an agreed fraction of the VAT we collect) is, by tortuous agreement, fed back to the donor – across that donor’s regions. A part of the money is diverted to the poorest Members, like Greece, to ensure we are surrounded by prosperity and have strong borders. The bureaucrats make mistakes. But we have been central to it all and have had a loud voice in all the decisions. Mistakes can be and must be reviewed – constantly. But in 47 years of maze-like complexity it has worked well – and will continue to work well.

There is no sensible reason to want to see the organisation break-up; as the world heads towards World Government (for the same trans-border issues reasons, globally). The red-tops hysterical “straight bananas” and “throwing-back-fish” and “Euro going bust” stories are utter nonsense promoted by “Elvis Presley alive on Mars” journalists; and by vested interests, as always, trying to escape rules and regulations and make another (tax-free) quick buck. My hopeful forecast is that these forces will fail and the EU will continue to prosper. It is we in the UK who will suffer as we ditch 60 years of hundreds of carefully crafted agreements – and cast ourselves out into the cold Atlantic. All major nations will give preference to the 500M Common Market. We are already globally being side-lined as irrelevant. We will be quickly dismantled with The City going abroad (it is only blips in computers) and all our main manufacturers relocating their HQs and factories.

It is a terrible mistake to embrace Brexit – whatever the unemployed shipbuilders in Hartlepool may think. Farage has convinced the disaffected mob that all their woes are caused by the EU. Trump is doing the same in the USA, blaming Washington. That is utter nonsense. They are of our own making and we could fix them. But not if we are going to focus our top resources for the next 20 years on re-negotiating hundreds of trade agreements , instead of getting on with our own productivity. The UK is not restricted by the EU in doing business globally. After 20 years of decline and re-negotiations, we will end up just as were in May 2016 – same red-tape, same trade barriers, same trading partners, and a disunited kingdom – but we will be a bankrupt, bent-banana, lonely, drowning island.

That is my forecast - unless we rapidly grow-up.

Noel
******** 


From: John

Sent: 22 October 2016
To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Re: Better off out

Noel
You have ignored what Tony's  contacts said about how clever we were to be getting out before the EU disintegrates. 

If you were right it would be difficult but it won't work out like you say. 

All EU Brussels people are positioning themselves on the hard line because they are terrified other countries want to leave. When the negotiations are actually done the self interest of each of the other 27 countries will be foremost and their exporting companies will be lobbying them hard for an agreement whereby they can continue to export to the UK. 

This is survival for the UK rather than being consumed in the fires of the failing EU. 

Best

John
*******

On 22 Oct 2016, Noel Hodson <noel@noelhodson.com> wrote:
John

I’m all for constantly reviewing our contracts with Europe and all nations. One of the Telegraph letters cites 52 nations that have trade agreements with the EU. What is ignored is that the agreements took 20 years to negotiate. In business terms it is a gross waste of time, effort and direction to dump all the past 50 years of UK deals – and re-do them. If it works don’t fix it. In the meantime, the world thinks we have blown it and Sterling is devalued. A famous restaurant reports that its salmon purchases have just “doubled” in price – terrible for upper-crust diners. Most supermarkets are predicting 10% price increases. The EU is saying “no soft Brexit …so sod off”. It will be chaotic for 10 to 20 years. Most investment decisions will be postponed. Britain will freeze and decline. We don’t have to do this.

Noel
********** 


From: John

Sent: 21 October 2016
To: Noel Hodson
Subject: Re: Better off out

Noel
It's observation of what's happening rather than personal opinion. 

Doesn't Tony H's email say it all. First hand accounts of the attitudes of intelligent well educated people in several EU countries. They think it's doomed. 

Also, we are not walking away from our customers. We are leaving a political framework but trade will continue with European countries just as lots of other countries have access to EU markets. 
It is simply not correct to say we are walking away from a section of our overseas market when what we are doing is leaving the EU political construct. Trade will continue. 

On the concept that the EU has prevented wars there is also the view that it is NATO that has done this not the EU. 
Further, the EU is causing civil unrest with its treatment of Southern European countries and policies on migrants. Expect this to escalate. 

Best

John
*********
On 19 Oct 2016, at 13:39, Noel Hodson <noel@noelhodson.com> wrote:
Thanks Tony H, John and Tony-L for your texts. I interpret them as encouraging a break-up of the EU. Why? It has brought peace to Europe for 60 years – which is its primary purpose. I have long advocated reduction of the UK population – but this could be done by our clever, highly-paid diplomats within the EU – just as we have negotiated other special deals. Better that than walking away from 47% (500M) of our best customers. PS – I’m not given to economic-exaggeration. Devaluation reports fluctuate between 16% and 19%. With other direct costs some economists calculate 20% losses = $1.2 trillion = $50,000 per household (about). The costs will increase annually. The poorest will bear most of these costs.

Contrary to The Telegraph’s views, here is a Tweet I sent this morning:
“ Brexiteers who say devaluation is good for the UK. Send me 17% of your savings and I'll agree with you” http://sci-fi-future-fact-fiction.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/brexit-britain-sterling-sink.html

Noel
*********

From Tony-L

Sent: 19 October 2016 12:58


Subject: Better off out

John, most people to whom I speak on the matter favour Hungary or Greece. However, I understand from friends living and working in Amsterdam for a few years now that the Dutch are very unhappy with the EU. I think an EU banking collapse will precipitate a major change first.
Tony-L.
*******

Tony-L

Most interesting, from your conversations which will be the next country to vote to leave the EU?

Best

John

*******



Sent: 19 October 2016 11:53

Subject: Re: 2nd Referendum

 Noel

I'm sorry but I really can't agree with you..at all! I was in France and Italy last week and am now in Germany... I am often having conversations with different people in these countries and they all basically think we're very clever to get out before the whole nonsense of the EU goes for a ball of chalk..which it most certainly will! Yes short term grief I agree and it's not pleasant paying 10-15% (don't exaggerate it's not 20%) more for everything ...although a cup of coffee here is still far cheaper than in UK.. roughly 1.20 € for a single expresso.. A couple of weeks ago on my way back from Heathrow I called in at the motorway services on M40 near Thame and against my better judgement allowed the person I was with to go to the stand alone brand spanking new Costa Coffee...even you couldn't begin to guess what they wanted for a single expresso ... £3.50!! I just couldn't believe it ..I gave them a piece of my mind and stomped out of the place! 

Last night I was at a drinks party just S of Munich and I was talking with an eminent doctor and a couple of his very bright female assistants and they all think Merkel is nuts and tell me that probably 90% of Germans would be glad to see the back of her in next March elections - but as yet no one else of presidential quality has come forward. 

I was also taking to a very wealth American woman who lives in Dallas ..she is pro Trump... A point she made as indeed did my wife that if a woman is being "groped" the power lies with her. If she's offended then bash the bloke hard round the head or indeed knee him in the balls! 

The last debate between The Donald and Hilary is tonight ..may the best man win!

Get over it! We're out of Europe .. allow the picture to unfold .. we are strong and very much admired in Europe apart from by the complete idiots who run the so called European Parliament... load of second rate bureaucrats! 

Chill! 

Best wishes for an exciting future! 

Tony H
 *******
On 18 Oct 2016, 
Dear John & Tony
As the UK walks away and deliberately insults 47% of its best customers, Doing a Ratner; as Sterling plummets making us 20% poorer; and as Theresa May, Trump-Hugging-Fake-Tan-Farage, and their demented cronies try to force or sneak through Brexit, based on The Will of The Halfwits who believed the Leavers-Lies; and against the votes of 16.1 million intelligent UK Remainers – against Scotland, N. Ireland and London – in the chaotic turmoil created by this government, you might not have signed this Petition for a 2nd Referendum. Sign it now:
PS – And please circulate it.

Noel Hodson


Thursday, 20 October 2016

BLOOD FROM STONE - BASE RATES

LETTER TO THE GUARDIAN - 20 OCT 2016.

William Hague and Theresa May lament the low interest rates paid by borrowers and demand that savers should get more unearned, risk free income. (Top Tories accused of foisting blame on Carney for the impact of austerity – Guardian 19Oct 16). Hague is now a City man, via Teneo, HSBC and others; as is May’s husband, Philip, at $1.4 trillion offshore, tax-free Capital Group

UK Households owe mortgages and overdrafts of £1.6 trillion (Aug 2016)

A 1% rise in Base Rate will gouge £16 billion a year, every year, from poor to rich, the majority from young to old, effort and risk free, creating misery, stress and homelessness – and all of it will flow through the banks and offshore funds, like a refreshing shower of gold. Is there no limit to the greed and irresponsibility of The City & Wall Street and their persistent, hired lobbyists? 

As BREXIT leads to ruin, UK Government relies on loan-sharking - Our last industry.


Unearned income led inflation is the most dangerous form of inflation. Higher interest rates impact on every stage of the business-cycle, raising prices at stage-1 that feeds into stage-2 that feeds into stage-3 etc. lifting prices on each of the average ten stages from primary industries (e.g. farming) to end consumers. This creates exponential growth in costs. Unearned, risk-free income also rewards indolence, where investors leave their decisions to the banks to feed them, like fat, lazy cuckoos in the nest. It also stuffs money into the mouths of the already rich - who horde it - who do not circulate it - which causes clogging of the nation's economic arteries. For a healthy economy - money must always circulate. 

In the UK, the handsome Canadian Mountie, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, has turned out to be one of the good guys - holding back the demands of the obscenely wealthy for more, and more, and more effort-free, risk-free, couch potato income - in tax-havens. Naturally, he is under intense attack from the indolent super-rich, as he defends the rights of the majority of people who work for a living. 


MARK CARNEY - MONEY-WARS


Noel Hodson - Director
Tax Reconciliations, Oxford UK,

Wednesday, 12 October 2016

GLOBAL WARMING - ROYAL SOCIETY

London - Above us the Waves.







My notes - not necessarily accurately expressing the panel's views:

Prof Brian Cox - Chair
Prof Brian Hoskins (maths)
Prof Kate Jones (biodiversity)
Oliver Morton (The Economist magazine)
Prof Keith Shine (climatology)

CO2 is now 400.97 ppm. Average over last I million years was 300ppm.
Last 200 years temp rise is 0.8C - proved to be due to humans

CO2 is 0.4% of atmosphere, which is 10,000 trillion molecules
One carbon atom uses/ generates 1 unit of energy to join the umbrella but blocks or locks in 100,000 units of energy.  100,000 : 1
Ocean is not mopping up CO2 as previously hoped.

INCREASE IS DEFINITELY FROM HUMAN ACTIVITY
Sea temperature is best guide
Old days, they drew up a bucket of water and stuck a thermometer in it.
Ships records go back 200 years.
Essential to correct/ harmonise old data-sets - e..g from Fahrenheit to Centigrade etc From wooden to iron buckets.

WILDLIFE
Spring is earlier
Autumn is later
Already 1/6th extinction of current species
Forecast 10 billion humans
Animals can Move, Expire or Evolve as planet warms
Will humans die off???

TIPPING POINT - not yet reached, still hope.
Greenland melting will take thousands of years yet. (I don't think so)
CO2 (greenhouse gas) persists for thousands of years

TARGET
+2C rise, measured since pre-industrial revolution (200 years)
Now we have +1C rise
2C should hold it at 400ppm
So...  it might stay under 2C

NO human extinction - but could be major die back.
More: HUMAN RACE - SURVIVAL

MOST VITAL ACTION - reduce CO2.

ENERGY
Now - we use 79% fossil fuels.
Target by 2030 is for 65% renewables

CLIMATE MODELS use worlds largest computers - getting more accurate.
Feedback of data makes for reliable Expert Systems - daily updates
Most effective counter measure is to increase cloud cover.

GEO-ENGINEERING IDEAS
Basically silly - vacuum out CO2, put  a sunshade in space; scatter particles in the upper atmosphere;
Unsafe, impractical, unpredictable.
Interfering with water, clouds, weather etc over other nations - could cause wars
The crop growing nitrogen cycle has been human geo-engineered and it works.
Bio-fuels are worse than useless - a crappy idea.
Solutions must be global.
Best - is solar power. Solar Soar Solar.

INDIVIDUALS - change your behaviour - home heat/cooling - travel
Most of all - lobby your governments for immediate action.
The UK has had a major influence on helping China go green.
BREXIT will internationally sideline the UK, which led the Paris talks.
Most Brexiteers are also climate-change-deniers - and vote for Trump.

CURRENT SYMPTOMS - are critical. Action this day.
Look at the data. Historic tables at e.g. England and Wales Precipitation Data.
Extreme weather is on the increase world-wide.
e..g Hurricane Mathew has 6 metre SLR surges. E.g. New Orleans floods
Single extreme events are up 40% in the last 40 years - caused by warmer seas.

PERSUADE GOVERNMENTS
Climate Change Act.
Only 27 MPs out of 650 have science degrees
BUT - Governments have cooperated to fix the Ozone holes over the Poles.
In 1988 Margaret Thatcher supported the Royal Society's work on global warming.

END - Prof Cox said "If this were a BBC programme I would have to provide Climate-Sceptic balance - but it isn't, so I won't" Cheers from the 600 audience.

(I sent in a question - How fast are the ice-caps melting. What is the timetable? - It wasn't tabled. Physicists tell me that no-one has yet figured out how to calculate it)

More: http://sci-fi-future-fact-fiction.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/pope-president-600-scientists-meltdown.html

Tuesday, 11 October 2016

BREXIT BRITAIN & STERLING SINK

ATLANTIS AND BRITAIN GO UNDER
Reuters - 11 Oct 2016 - Trade-weighted sterling hit a nearly-eight-year low of 74.0 at the Bank of England’s first morning print of the index, which measures the pound’s broader strength. It was also half a percent weaker at 90.51 pence per euro.
Some traders cited a Financial Times report that Russian bank VTB may move its European hub to Frankfurt, Paris or Vienna as having added to worries of financial sector cutbacks inLondon due to Brexit.
“There is nothing to go on on the data front today, but concerns surrounding our ever increasing current account deficit have reignited discussion around the widespread impact such a hole can create,” said Tobias Davis, head of corporate treasury sales at Western Union in London
Neil Wilson ETX Capital - 11 Oct 2016 - GBP/USD crashed through the $1.23 handle to around 1.2284, its lowest level since last week’s gyrations. It’s not unreasonable to think that ferocious flash crash was just a very tentative toe in the water and the pound is now plunging headlong into the abyss.
Sterling seems to be looking for a level and it’s really unclear where that could be and so bargain hunting is a risky game to play at the moment. The $1.20 handle earmarked by many before the referendum is definitely in play as everyone seems to be short sterling at present.

WAR WITH RUSSIA - LETTER TO THE GUARDIAN - 13TH OCT 2016 - Turncoat, bumbling, embarrassing  Boris Johnson today attempts to obscure his idiocy and the already immense costs of Brexit by declaring war on Russia. As winter closes in, he just has time to use the Royal Prerogative to march on Moscow - alone. (Conservative ex-ministers warn May of Brexit risks – Guardian 13 Oct 16). Repetition of “the-people-have-spoken” does not give this hapless, incompetent Cabinet a mandate to spend the next 3 years bankrupting Britain. They should follow all the other leading, lying Brexiteers and resign with their tails between their legs. Time is very short if we are to restore business-as-usual and rescue our economy. The nation needs a coalition of Remainers to reverse this lunacy – Now!  

Noel Hodson

Following traitorous, ex-Prime Minister David Cameron's 52% to 48% Brexit referendum, the government and media now deny the existence of the 16.1 million intelligent 48% REMAINERS, cleaving to Tory education Minister Michael Gove's statement "We have had enough of Experts!" and they elevate the majority IQ challenged LEAVERS - those who voted "Out" only to register a protest against the Ivy-League elite who run the UK and siphon all the spare wealth to tax-havens. These LEAVERS, stalwart-peasants, the Longbow-Men of Agincourt, and Sons-of-the-Kings-of-the-Waves, and Your-Country-Needs-You World-War-One canon-fodder, understandably had difficulty analysing the myriad complexities of the UK quitting the EU - thinking that the vote was really about kicking out the Tories. They didn't and couldn't know that quitting the largest and wealthiest market in the world would sideline and bankrupt the UK and consign us to the dustbin of history.
"THE (STUPIDEST) PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN" - Our currency, Sterling - once the world's reserve-currency, then trading at $5 to the Pound, has collapsed since June 2016 by 17% -which Murdoch's idiotic Brexit media machine is hastily trying to tell us is "a good thing". And this week, the Tories, 1922 Committee, whose KKK-like, old-white-males dominate Prime Minister Mrs May, have forced her, our new Prime Minister, to announce a ban on foreign students - one of our largest currency earners and most valued global exports. Next, she will ban tourism - because that beer-swilling anti-European little fascist fake-tan rat-bag, Nigel Farrage, doesn't like to hear foreign languages on his local train to London. All these exceedingly stupid "The People Have Spoken" anti-business moves have impoverished the UK by 20% - since June. Would President Trump or President Hillary have made such nationally-destructive decisions? 

The UK does not have to quit Europe - it is not too late to regain our sanity. 

LETTER TO THE GUARDIAN - STUPID - STUPID - STUPID: Following Jonathan Freedland’s “Who speaks for the 48% as we lurch to extreme Brexit?” (Guardian 8 Oct 2016) we urgently need a leader, now, today, to form a coalition to represent the Sixteen-Million-One-Hundred-and-Forty-One-Thousand-Two-Hundred-and-Forty-One (16,141,241) intelligent Remain voters. BBC News reported last week that Paris is inviting London banks and hi-tech start-ups to defect, to escape Brexit. In the global “free-markets” Sterling has collapsed by 17% against the dollar and Euro. Renault-Nissan might pull out. Mrs May’s Three-Stooges have lost all credibility.  Our nation is being ruined while moronic Brexiters gormlessly repeat “The people have spoken” and “Brexit means Brexit”. It will get much worse. We cannot watch our nation being bankrupted by the mob who believed the Leavers-lies with no idea of the consequences.  Do NOT trigger Article 50. We do not have to leave and commit economic suicide!

Noel Hodson - Director
Tax Reconciliations, Oxford UK,