Saturday, 25 February 2017

THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE


Mel Cooper writes:

John

BREXIT

What precisely did David Cameron ask?  How clearly did he ask it?  what precisely do you have against the EU and are you really confident that leaving before making a severance agreement is not both premature and dangerous? 

My impression of Cameron is of a political lightweight with no real vision and little appetite really to understand or explain either our relationship with the EU, what it does for us, what essentially needs reforming or what benefits us enough already to outweigh our quibbles and dissatisfactions. I think the referendum was premature and both sides never entered into an intelligent debate. I feel both sides cheated but that Brexit was astonishingly dishonest in its NHS promises and several other things. I also believe that the rush to Brexit No Matter What is a potential disaster and that it is not only a betrayal but also gives permission to xenophobic, racist and economically divisive attitudes. 

Marine Le Pen is feeding off Brexit and seemingly legitimised for many because of Brexit. Are you really pleased by that or simply refusing to see the connection? 

Brexit is good news for Trump and Putin too. To me that seems obvious. How can that in itself not give you pause?  

I do despise Cameron for not taking the time to run a positive Remain campaign to educate everyone, myself included, as to why we should vote Remain; and as for Jeremy Quisling Corbyn, that miserable self-righteous and smug Fifth Columnist, he has a lot to answer for. 

Maybe I am wrong but I firmly believe we have been propelled prematurely into abandoning virtually the only hopeful economic and political experiment since WWII. It may have been flawed but it was not broken and many of the things it is accused of are actually the faults of our own governments or are misunderstandings of a wider picture or flat lies promoted by the likes of Nigel Farage. If it is working, essentially, and you (we Brits) have the best deal of anyone in the club, why abandon this for what is bound to be a lesser deal and so much dangerous uncertainty?  

And you are gloating like a Donald Trump. You are crowing that by leaving we win and they lose and may collapse. Even if they are mistaken about some things, would it not be better to remain and work for a Win-Win solution? Maybe in the light of intransigence or stupidity you could consider leaving in 5 years or so but not by a whirlwind Referendum. This is a Parliamentary democracy and, frankly, it is Parliament that should debate this properly, transparently, intellectually and as unemotionally as possible. The Referendum should be advisory and not binding on an issue that is so complex and has successfully a long-term impact unless there is a much, much larger majority. 

Frankly, even if you think Brexit is expedient, at this time and in this way, I perceive it also as unethical. And it is also a major distraction from more urgent and far more troubling problems and very likely to give licence not only for more narrow nationalism and bigotry but for undoing positive progress in all kinds of socially sensitive legislation that was not actually imposed upon us but agreed to. 

I grew up in Canada where Quebec threatened a kind of Brexit scenario on a regular basis. It was always a very bad idea. And if you are being consistent then you have to let Scotland and Northern Ireland go independent too. And yes, logically if you do leave the EU only a hard Brexit makes sense because otherwise you are still in the single market but with a worse deal. But if you prefer Isolationism to working for Reform and think the exhilaration of a clean break outweighs the ideal of the EU, then let's just see how that plays out over the next five years. I foresee a hell of a mess and I think you are promoting an act of self-harm for the UK morally, economically and politically. 

Yours, 

Mel  

More Mel Cooper:

BREXIT - BE VERY AFRAID


ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE






---- John wrote:

Mel

In what way do you think we have a responsibility to the EU when we asked them to change the way they did things and they refused. 

The EU had its chance and did not take it. Wilfully refused to change. The saying is, you've made your bed now lie on it. 

Many other European countries also seeing the light.

Best

John

On 23 Feb 2017, at 14:30, Mel Cooper  wrote:

Hey! I have a better idea. The whole world is falling apart and not fulfilling our dreams so just get into bed, pull the covers over your head and leave that too. After all, what possible responsibility could you have to anyone else? Mel

---- John wrote ----



...and if the link does not allow you to see the whole article here it is:


We must leave the EU quickly – it is falling apart faster than I thought

    Allister Heath

22 February 2017 • 8:37pm


The EU is at its weakest, most vulnerable since its creation, and it is now touch and go whether it survives 2017 or whether it is swept away in a catastrophic populist revolt


Hand over a €60 billion ransom or we won’t even start to discuss a trade deal: that, if Jean-Claude Juncker is to be believed, will be the European Union’s opening gambit ahead of Brexit. Bring it on, I say: the best way to expose a very weak adversary who is pretending to be very strong is to call their bluff. Yet it may never even get to that. At this rate, what is left of the EU could soon be begging us for a trade deal, not the other way around.


The reality is that the EU is edging ever-closer to the abyss: it is at its weakest, most vulnerable since its creation, and it is now touch and go whether it survives 2017 or whether it is swept away in a catastrophic populist revolt.


Trouble is not only brewing in France, where Marine Le Pen keeps gaining ground, but also in the Netherlands, in Greece, in Italy and in eastern Europe. Even if the dissidents fail, for now, the EU will soon be crippled by Britain’s departure, robbing it of its financial centre and billions of pounds a year in net contributions.

"The reality is that the EU is edging ever-closer to the abyss: it is at its weakest, most vulnerable since its creation, and it is now touch and go whether it survives 2017 or whether it is swept away in a catastrophic populist revolt"


The EU’s modus operandi has always been to buy support with German and British money, especially in poorer regions and in France’s agricultural heartlands: when the cash runs out, or is replaced by some euro-tax, tensions will flare up again.


We keep worrying about how Brexit will affect Britain. But the real question is how Brexit will debilitate Brussels, shift the balance of power and ideology on the continent, with smaller, more pro-market nations losing their British champion, and trigger a new dash to yet more unpopular centralising treaties, fuelling more range and anger. Yet the Eurocrats in Brussels and some Remainers in Britain keep on talking as if nothing has changed, as if the UK were leaving some powerful, eternal, economically successful superpower. The status quo is gone, forever, and what is left could be smashed further in just three months’ time.

Marine Le Pen
Marine Le Pen: her election would detonate a neutron bomb under all post-war institutions and the global economic order


The most urgent threat to the EU system comes from Le Pen. Her rise, the extent of which has confounded everybody, is the most important story of the year. Her hard-Left views on big companies, capital and trade are incompatible with EU membership, as are her views on immigration; and she wants to quit the euro.


France’s current, already broken constitutional arrangements and “social contract” wouldn’t survive. Le Pen’s election would detonate a neutron bomb under all post-war institutions and the global economic order; a disorderly French withdrawal from the euro, which would also lead to others such as Italy following suit, would wipe trillions off asset values and trigger another global financial crisis.


Le Pen is now polling around 27 per cent in the first round and while she would still be defeated in the second, surveys suggest she would grab an unprecedented 42 per cent of the electorate. Given that this is a rise of around five percentage points in just a few weeks, anything is now possible, and it reflects the extreme, explosive disenchantment among the French public with decades of economic, social, immigration and crime policies. Even if she loses, the genie will be well and truly out of the bottle.


The likes of Juncker, a Marie Antoinette figure if ever there were one, are now so firmly ensconced in a parallel reality, replete with alternative facts and constructs, that they no longer understand what is happening. They still look at the shiny new Europa building in Brussels, which cost €321 million, and see a powerful, purposeful force for progress, rather than an increasingly loathed, soon-to-be bankrupt bureaucracy whose demise threatens the peace and prosperity of our civilisation.


They labour over their preposterous economic models, telling us how impoverished the UK will become as a result of us loosening our ties with an imaginary fast-growing European economy, not realising that they are the victim of an extraordinary case of cognitive dissonance. They look at the world, but only see what they want to see, rather than what exists.

"Le Pen’s election would detonate a neutron bomb under all post-war institutions and the global economic order; a disorderly French withdrawal from the euro, which would also lead to others such as Italy following suit, would wipe trillions off asset values and trigger another global financial crisis"


One of the reasons why I backed Brexit was because the UK is the only major European country able and willing to extricate itself from the doomed project in a rational, pro-trade, pro-market way. Brexit allows us to show the world that there is a better, more sustainable way to embrace real globalisation without having to hand over power to corrupt, unelected technocrats, and that wanting self-government doesn’t necessitate voting for extreme, destructive National Front-style parties. So far, it looks even better than I hoped, thanks to Theresa May’s enthusiasm for free trade and her commitment to keep the country open to capital and talent.


But where I may have been over-optimistic was that I was hoping that the EU would survive for at least another five years to 2022, giving Britain more time to build new institutions, diversify our trade and show the rest of Europe how it could be done. I was counting on the cyclical economic upturn, which will give all European economies a boost, as well as on an assumption that someone other than Le Pen would win in May, before going on to fail to reform France and thus delivering the country into her hands the next time around. Jacques Chirac failed to reform France, as did Nicolas Sarkozy; one must hope that Francois Fillon would pull it off, but that’s unlikely. Emmanuel Macron, a fashionable neo-Blairite with no party backing, would fail disastrously.


I’m no longer so sure that we have so much time. It still seems likely that the EU will stagger on for a few more years, just as it survived earlier crises, but the day of reckoning is getting ever closer. We need to leave, urgently, to insulate ourselves as best we can from the fallout.


Given the gravity of the situation in France, the House of Lords should be debating how to accelerate our withdrawal from the EU, not how to delay it. Big banks should be planning on shifting bankers to Britain from France, not (in one case) the other way around. Remainers should stop producing anti-Brexit reports that massively exaggerate all of the difficulties caused by leaving, and turn their attention instead to ways of mitigating the fallout from the EU’s implosion.


It is in Britain’s interest that the EU’s demise be carefully managed. Unfortunately, it increasingly looks like the opposite will be true. The Government should be hoping for the best, but planning ever-harder for the worst. 

(I imagine that Allister is an alt-truth graduate of The Trump University of Journalism) - Ed

No comments:

Post a Comment