Wednesday, 25 October 2017

THE ECONOMICS OF BREXIT


THE ECONOMICS OF BREXIT – A work-in-progress. 3.1 million jobs lost is the estimate; so far.


BREXIT WILL BANKRUPT BRITAIN

Brexit zealots believe the UK will be better-off after Brexit, even after a Hard-Brexit, or indeed, after a No-Deal-Brexit that takes us over "The Cliff Edge" onto World Trade Organisation WTO rules. These enthusiasts are daring, entrepreneurial Brits, who fear nothing and see only opportunities when change occurs.

But, I think the reality is that secret, tax-haven Brexit sponsors are back-pedalling as fast as they can from EU rules to close tax-havens - which would make them pay-tax. "Only the little people pay tax". Tax-evaders are desperate to Leave and pay no tax - whatever the damage to the UK. There are about £2.5 trillion (8 million jobs) of UK capital-flight assets in the global tax-havens. It is all legally recoverable by HMRC. 

MANAFORT INDICTMENT  - The Full Text of tax-evasion & money laundering. This action challenges the ridiculous PR crap, repeatedly mouthed by the BBC and other media  for many years, “Complex tax-avoidance; which is of course strictly legal” It ain’t legal and never has been legal – see here, $70 million in fines and 60 years in jail. You cannot make up your own fraudulent entries. Its crooked - not legal. It put Al Capone in prison for many years. I include it here because it now, 8th Nov 17, seems clear that Russia might have funded both Trump's campaign and Brexit - both through tax-havens. Read-on.

Hence, they based their LEAVE campaign on blatant lies and innuendo, to fool The People. e.g. That quitting the EU would pump £350 million per week into the National Health Service. Simple folk who do believe in fairies, voted Leave, hoping they would get rid of Tory austerity, improve their impoverished dull lives, maybe get a job on a Living Wage, and restore Great Britain to the era of King Arthur and The Knights of the Round Table, with Sovereignty; having not the faintest clue what it meant or means. Such a lie-based referendum should be declared illegal and null and void. As it is, the 0.5% are trampling over the hopes and dreams of the 99.5% - and once again stealing all their money. Who paid for this extremely determined 20 year campaign? The offshore media barons and tax-evaders paid. (plus - in now appears - The Kremlin). The spending power of the tax-evaders grows day-by-day while the majority get poorer and weaker.


*****

15 NOV 17 - Leading Brexiter and lobbyist for high interest rates, John Redwood MP - explained. In addition to his salary and expenses as an MP, he "works" 75 hours a year for Charles-Stanley, a respected, old established London bank and stock-brokers, for £180,000 per annum. Is he on-shore or off-shore? Redwood's investment advice is to pull out of the UK. His Brexit sales pitch is that the UK will thrive. Mistake or lies? or a major conflict of interest? 

*****

Trilogue agreement on beneficial ownership – Tuesday 14 November 2017


13 November 2017

Why is this important?

On Tuesday 14 November 2017, EU negotiators (the European Commission, European Parliament and Council of EU Member States) are to continue negotiating on the Anti-Money Laundering Directive (AMLD):

·         EU negotiations on the Anti-Money Laundering Directive have been ongoing since 5 July 2016, when the European Commission first proposed revisions to AMLD4 in order to require all EU Member States to establish public registers of beneficial ownership for companies and commercial trusts.

·         A key decision could be made on whether the AMLD4 will be revised in order to introduce public registers of beneficial ownership for companies and trusts in all EU Member States, or whether information in these registers will only be made accessible to those with a ‘legitimate interest’ (similar to the current rules in AMLD4).

·         The European Parliament wants companies and trusts to reveal the identities of the ultimate beneficial owners behind these structures, whereas the Council only wants this information to be accessible to those with a ‘legitimate interest’.

*      ******


As Thomas Piketty has analysed in his book CAPITAL, the 0.5% get richer while the 99.5% get poorer - day by day. This Midas syndrome, dating from 1980, caused justifiable anger and mass support for Farage's Brexit and for Trump's monstrous ego. Both of these madmen are inciting the mob to violent rage.

This 15 year OECD chart shows that Britain is one of the worst offenders. And "they" don't even pay tax on their selfish, unearned, ill-gotten gains. Trump is intent on reducing distributive taxes - reducing tax on the super-rich. Brexiters want the UK to be a tax-haven. Do we want Evolution or a bloody Revolution?

Timid REMAINERS, such as I, see disruption, disengagement from 500 million wealthy EU consumers and eventually our national bankruptcy, unless we stop the Brexit process - now. 


Background to the EU. After World War 2, aZurich University, 19 September 1946, Churchill said "I now sum up the propositions which are before you. Our constant aim must be to build and fortify the United Nations Organisation. Under and within that world concept we must re-create the European family in a regional structure called, it may be, the United States of Europe, and the first practical step will be to form a Council of Europe. If at first all the States of Europe are not willing or able to join a union we must nevertheless proceed to assemble and combine those who will and who can. The salvation of the common people of every race and every land from war and servitude must be established on solid foundations, and must be created by the readiness of all men and women to die rather than to submit to tyranny."

Dame Margaret Thatcher, when Prime Minister, was keen on EU Membership.


Because the UK government hasn't yet begun to count the costs, this article can only indicate the colossal irreversible damage to the UK economy.

2 NOV 2017 - UPDATE. UK Cabinet can't or won't publish impact studies. Are they thicker or brighter than the "F*****g Moron" running America? No wonder Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon used his "Knight-of- the-lecherous-knee", the Westminster sex-pest scandal to resign; he's getting out before it all goes tits-up. "I wasn't there and I know nothing."

https://www.ft.com/content/da48bd00-bd91-11e7-b8a3-38a6e068f464
3 days ago - The Brexit ministry has refused to release key details about reports outlining the economic impact of Britain leaving the EU on 58 industries, ...

Government refusing to publish 50 'secret' studies on Brexit impact ...

www.independent.co.uk › News › UK › UK Politics
14 Aug 2017 - Mr Walker had said that the impact of Brexit on certain sector was .... Cameron commissioned a government report into the benefits or not of ...

Brexit is worst ever decision, says Bloomberg
Leaving EU ‘stupidest thing a nation has done - bar electing Trump’ - 
(Guardian news 25 October 2017)
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire media mogul and former mayor of New York, has said Brexit is the “single stupidest thing any country has ever done” apart from the election of Donald Trump as US president.

MP demands universities' teaching details amid pro-Brexit claims
A CONSERVATIVE MP (a senior officer of the Tory Party, Chris Heaton-Harris) has written to every university in the UK requesting that they reveal details of their teaching on Brexit, amid fears that students are being brainwashed by Remain-supporting lecturers. (Daily Express 25th Oct 2017)
Celebrity comic, multi-millionaire MP Jacob Rees-Mogg is stifling debate by launching unsubstantiated personal attacks on forecasters at the Bank of England and The Treasury, (threatening their jobs) who analyse the losses of Brexit. His £1.6 B London & Singapore fund management firm Somerset Capital Management LLP had 2017 profits of £28 M, the directors drew £6 M (tax paid?). Does it pay approx. £9 M in corp tax as it should? Is SOMERSET CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED a connected company? Is he another tax-dodging Brexiter anxious to quit the EU? 
HANSARD: 20 DEC 2016 - Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset) (Con): May I note a hereditary interest in relation to the forces of the great Rupert Murdoch and commend my right hon. Friend for her proper even-handedness in dealing with this matter and her correct responses. May I also note that we have seen the true voice of socialist envy that, thanks to Rupert Murdoch, who risked his whole business on it in about 1990, Sky has provided incredible choice to millions of people. It is amazingly popular. Instead of decrying this wonderful achievement, we should be proud that it happened in Britain and that this huge investment is potentially coming into our nation. I hope that my right hon. Friend will bear that in mind and will not fall tempted by the siren voices of socialist ingrates.

Gagging academics & universities and sacking intellectuals worked for Hitler. Why not for Brexiters?


15 NOV 2017 - Rees-Mogg makes more unsubstantiated claims: "UK will get £135 billion boost from hard Brexit exit". But he has no evidence for this bizarre belief. Did he read it on Fox-News or Breibart, or in a Kremlin Tweet from the Russian disinformation units. Even the Daily Mail scoffs at his arithmetic. 

 
SUMMARY - Jobs gainedjobs lost - details below: (so far - watch this space)
























Plus of course, the BREXIT bill - say, $70 billion, say, over 7 years, is equivalent to $70,000,000,000 / 7/ 27,000 = another 370,000 jobs. 


Total EU Population
508,191,116
100.00
0.26
1,313,888

I use the number of 500,000,000 souls, for the 27 remaining Member States, as a post-Brexit total, taking out the 65 million Brits, then allowing 5 years for negotiation, adding births, immigration and new member-states. The EU trading-bloc is the largest, richest, most educated consumer-group - ever. The UK is 
"doing a Ratner" - insulting its customers and shooting itself in the foot.
These are examples of what will impoverish us:

1. Currency Devaluation. Since the June 2016 Brexit Referendum, sterling has fallen 20%. The UK has a global import bill that is £90 billion more than our exports. The devaluation cost is £17 billion a year, (£17B / 32M households = £531 per family) every year. And it could get worse. Our living costs are soaring. This devaluation cost will not be recovered. It is money down the Brexit drain. 
JOBS: £17,000,000,000 / £27,000 average UK pay = 629,000 lost jobs.

MORE TOURISTS: VisitBritain predicts tourists' spending will surge by 14% this year (ACTUAL 2017 INCREASE IS 8% OR £872 MILLION)
"Very often people budget in their own currency. They're getting more pounds for their money, and we can see their spend going up," says Patricia Yates. Sterling has tumbled 16% against the euro since the June 2016 referendum, and has fallen 23% against the US dollar. Over the past two years, the pound has dropped about 30% against the euro. £872 M /£27,000 = 32,296 extra jobs.

MORE EXPORTS - THE ECONOMISTFollowing a period of stability in early 2017, sterling has once again started to slide downwards. On August 29th it hit €1.08, its lowest level against the euro since 2009. There remain few indications, however, that an export boom is around the corner. It turns out that devaluing your way to prosperity is not easy. Zero increase so far £0 = 0 new jobs.

2. Isolation and competition. Some of our top exports are vulnerable to being easily picked off by rivals and raiders. 
UK's World Trade - Office of Statistics  - We export 47% to the EU, being £134 billion in goods plus £24 billion in financial services - per annum. Equivalent to about 6 million UK jobs.
The City, must retain European Passporting Rights to keep its global position and trade across Europe. We have until 29 March 2019 to get our act in order. Most banks and even ancient Lloyds of London are already opening new EU centres and EU trading companies. The City employs 454,700 souls and pays £70 billion UK tax annually - year after year. Cities that want our brokers, banks and banks jobs, include Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin and Madrid. All large EU cities will offer incentives for our 1,000 years old City to relocate. That's £70 billion, year after year, up for grabs. European cities will offer personal incentives and easy access to the 500,000,000 EU Citizens - linking with, in turn, their long established access to neighbouring markets in Russia, Asia and The Middle and Far East.

Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Lloyds of London (insurance), Lloyds Bank, HSBC: and hundreds more.

BLOOMBERG: Frankfurt Is the Big Winner in Battle for Brexit Bankers - By Gavin FinchHayley Warren and Tim Coulter - Last updated September 28, 2017
Estimated by The City - job losses (see below) 230,000 jobs. (230,000 x £27,000 =£6.2 Billion for 10 years = £62 billion in total)
******
Top end industries lose jobs
Boeing Aircraft Corporation has persuaded Trump to slap a 300% (three-times the price) tariff on the UK's Bombardier aircraft. That means US customers will have to pay 4 times what we ask - with 3/4 going to the US Treasury. No country will buy our planes if we can't supply and maintain UK aircraft in America; they will assume we have lost our reliability and world position.

In the same week, BAE systems is putting 2,000 specialist engineers out of work, from the Euro-Typhoon-Fighter project. And presumably our involvement in the £4 billion a year  European Airbus Consortium, employing 6,000 in the UK with 110,000 associated UK jobs, will swiftly end. Europe doesn't want a partner who spurns Europeans. Job Losses 118,000

To keep Nissan in Britain, Brexiters have promised to pay any increased tariffs on exports to the EU. WTO car, vehicle and parts tariff is 9.8% on, say, the average £19K Nissan car, is £1,862, applied to 500,000 EU Nissan cars = a £931 million per year bill to UK Gov. Nissan, in the North-East, employs 8,000, which in turn supports another 32,000 supply chain jobs. Such UK Government subsidies are unsustainable. How long before Trump and the EU slap on a 300% tariff?  Potential Job losses 40,000

RETAIL :  26 OCT 2017 - Impact of devaluation on UK shops:

UK retail sales plunge at fastest rate since 2009 - CBI - Reuters UK

https://uk.reuters.com/...retail/uk-retail-sales-plunge-at-fastest-rate-since-2009-cbi-idU...

5 days ago - UK retail sales plunge at fastest rate since 2009 - CBI ... the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which said its monthly retail sales gauge fell ...

UK economy: Are retail sales really falling at their fastest rate since the ...

www.independent.co.uk › News › Business › Business Analysis & Features
4 days ago - UK economy: Are retail sales really falling at their fastest rate since the ... The CBI's latest monthly Distributive Trades Survey, released on ...

UK economy: Are retail sales really falling at their fastest rate since the ...

www.independent.co.uk › News › Business › Business News
4 days ago - UK economy: Are retail sales really falling at their fastest rate since the recession ... 

TheCBI figures are certainly weak, but the survey is "noisy".
These are the other UK business categories, indicative of the 70,000 items, subject to tariffs and VAT, to be re-visited and re-negotiated globally:

30th Oct 2017: BBC News. UK Government has Brexit damage reports on 58 industries, but refuses to publish them. Undoubtedly they forecast doom, doom, doom - bad news being hidden from the public.

A summary list: Spot your sector.
Contents 
Section A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 5
Section B Mining and Quarrying 5
Section C Manufacturing 5
Section D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9
Section E Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9
Section F Construction 9
Section G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 10
Section H Transportation and storage 12
Section I Accommodation and food service activities 12
Section J Information and communication 12
Section K Financial and insurance activities 13
Section L Real estate activities 13
Section M Professional, scientific and technical activities 13
Section N Administrative and support service activities 14
Section O Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 15
Section P Education 15
Section Q Human health and social work activities 15
Section R Arts, entertainment and recreation 15
Section S Other service activities 15
Section T Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use 16
Section U Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies. 

Here are the VAT categories: - summarised. We will have to renegotiate them all, worldwide, to agree WTO or other terms.

SOME STATISTICS:

15 Aug 2017 - Exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth £240 billion in 2016, while exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about £310 billion. ... Germany has the biggest trade deficit with us— in 2015 it sold about £25 billion more to us than we sold to it, according to the latest UK data.

Kwik-Stats - It is very complex. Let’s start by assuming that a "No Deal" triggering trading on WTO rules and tariffs (see link) , replaces the current system of EU no-tariffs with an average of, say, 10% on UK exports to the EU. Putting up our prices by 10% will probably lose us at least 10% in sales. That is 10% x £240 billion = £24 billion = 888 thousand jobs, annually.

Equally, the EU will or, if the UK charges import tariffs, might lose 10% of its sales to the UK, = £31 billion = 1.1 million jobs. However, their lost jobs are not our problem. The UK will lose UK jobs on internal distribution and servicing the imported goods and services. Using the German Cars imports calculation below, where £486M of imports costs us 4,500 UK jobs; will mean losing 64,000 jobs. We have accounted for German cars so, say, 60,000 UK imports-handling jobs lost.

WORLD TRADE ORGANISATION WTO
Formation        1 January 1995; 22 years ago
Type                 International trade organization
Purpose            Regulate international trade
Headquarters    Centre William RappardGenevaSwitzerland
Coordinates      46.12°N 6.09°E
Region served  Worldwide
Membership     164 member states[1]
Official language       EnglishFrenchSpanish[2]
Budget              196 million Swiss francs (approx. 209 million US$) in 2011.[3]
Staff                  640[4]
Website             www.wto.org


NO-DEAL means using the World Trade Organisation tariffs and legal system - which are outside the sovereignty of UK courts. No senior UK politician has yet claimed to have read, never mind comprehended and calculated the impact of, the voluminous WTO rules and tariffs. LEAVERS lobby for a leap in the dark with all our goods and services. British Rulers spurn the need to actually read any books. We are being led by lazy half-wits.

...By contrast, though the UK would save 0.4 per cent of GDP, economists estimate no deal would lead to a loss of between 3 and 6 per cent of GDP. With good reason, the only country that currently trades with the rest of the globe under World Trade Organisation rules is Mauritania.

No fly Europe: 
What deals do we need to keep our planes up in Europe?
Philip Hammond says a Brexit no-deal could ground flights between EU and UK 



Carmakers fear Brexit customs checks will cost 'tens of millions'

https://www.ft.com/content/4f6907d8-c58b-11e7-b2bb-322b2cb39656
10 NOV 17 - Britain's car industry, which has seen years of growth built on ... In one example, Honda said that a delay of as little as 15 minutes to each truck that passes through Dover would add £850,000 to its annual running costs. ... of tariffs would put the UK automotive industry for both vehicles and parts at an ...        That represents more job losses: £850,000 /£27,000 = 31 jobs or equivalent reduced wages, for Each car exporter, say, multiply by 10 = 310 jobs lost

STOP BREXIT.
 This article takes about 150 hours to write. If I /we had 1,000 hours, I could list thousands of companies that will lose millions of jobs if Brexit proceeds. Most industries predict substantial job losses:

BREXIT: The UK Chemical Industry Response - Chemical Watchfiles.chemicalwatch.com/CIA%20Brexit%20survey.pdf
Industry Response. Results of the CIA member survey on Brexit ... CIA Brexit survey overview . ....UK government policies to increase R&D spending.

Food industry shaken by hard Brexit prospects, survey reveals ...https://www.theguardian.com › Business › Food & drink industry
12 Oct 2016 - Concern grows over price rises, import duties and staff retention from fallout of ... Food and drink is by far the largest manufacturing sector in the UK, ... what Brexit means for the industry, added: “Government and industry ...

UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show | Business ...https://www.theguardian.com › Business › Manufacturing sector
8 Jan 2017 - UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show .... government is able to provide greater certainty and the industry is able to manage ...

Assessment of the UK post-referendum economy - Office for National ...https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/.../september201...

21 Sep 2016 - The view from ONS of the emerging picture of the UK economy after the ... It uses a range of ONS data including prices, trade, employment and retail ... Some outside surveys carried out in the days and weeks ... The small decline in July was across most manufacturing industries, ...macro@ons.gsi.gov.uk 

HM Treasury analysis shows leaving EU would cost British ... - Gov.ukhttps://www.gov.uk/government/.../hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cos...

18 Apr 2016 - Britain will be worse off by £4,300 a year per household if Britain votes to leave ... HM Treasury analysis shows leaving EU would cost British households ... Both the services industry and advanced manufacturing are reliant on ...

Can we assume that UK.Gov is adding up the numbers? NO. Will they tell us? Why are they hiding the 58 industry reports they (we) have paid for?

FOOD - WTO tariffs on fresh food are 37% on meat and 45% for dairy. 


CUSTOMS CHAOS: Brexit Lorries might be parked along centre of M20 - as cargoes queue at the Dover ferry terminal. DfT 16 NOV 2017. Previous bottlenecks of HGV queues cost £250 million per day.

The University of Sussex report that average household food bills will increase by £500 a year if we quit withe a NO-DEAL. The Guardian's analysis of the report, which is confirmed by The Resolution Foundation, is that the 2 million poorest households will suffer an increase of £930 a year. There are about 27 million households x £500 = £13.5 billion /£27,000 = 500,000 jobs equivalent. 

3. Sitting Stuck Duck: Until the UK gets its trading relationship with Europe into contracts (we have about 70,000 different product and services contracts agreed, over 60 years, with the EU at present); no major trading-bloc can conclude new contracts with us. Because --- such new direct contracts with the UK will have to be examined for conflicts with, for example, Canada's existing contracts with the EU. Other nations or groups of nations are not rushing to join the UK in a lemming-like suicide pact, over the cliff-edge. They might be prepared to die for their own country - but are not prepared to die for ours. This is not war; it is business. 

Like Trump, if we beg other OECD nations to make trade deals - they will sadly see the opportunity to slap 300% tariffs on our goods and services. Standing alone in the world, bruised, battered but unbowed, we won't have a leg to stand on, or a friend to lean on.  
We are stuck and paralysed. 

4.  But say BREXITERS Europe needs the UK - "for example BMW earn billions of Euros in exports to Britain"

Yes they do; along with Mercedes, VW and others. Bloomberg estimates those sales represent 18,000 German jobs. A lot to lose. But, without post-Brexit trade agreements we and Germany will never unravel the maze of international parts imported and exported to make a right-hand-drive BMW and supply the servicing network and employee exchanges.

Tariff free EU free-markets, built from 1950 onwards, smooth most of these problems - until Brexit happens. After Brexit, all the trans-border parts will be subject to a range of tariffs and of VAT. The queues at Custom and Excise borders will be long and tedious. The paper-work will be monumental. It will take years and years and years to sort out. There are in the UK 150 BMW showrooms & servicing - say, 30 employees at each = 
4,500 jobs at risk.

Similarly for medicines - and medical equipment - and medical staff. All licensed to work in other countries. All such licenses will be cancelled and have to be reset - worldwide. As with the shock 300% Trump tariff, all trading partners will seek to drive hard bargains. The UK will fight back - and find imports we can charge to those combative countries. Say, 20 years of detailed negotiations before we can sell Anadin-Extra in Rome or Los Angeles. Or before we can supply fine surgeons to foreign countries - and hire skilled people from overseas. Applications from medics in Europe to work in the UK have dropped 80%. What chance will our medics have to work in Europe?

5. City jobs will go to Europe by Christmas: Guardian 5 Oct 17 "A top official at the Bank of England has warned the government it has less than 12 weeks to agree a transition deal with the EU to prevent City firms starting to move jobs and business out of the UK.
Sam Woods, a deputy governor at the Bank, said City firms would activate their Brexit contingency plans if there was no deal on a transition period by Christmas which would mitigate the impact of a hard Brexit in March 2019. Woods also repeated his warning of the strain being put on the Bank’s ability to police the financial sector as a result of the changes firms needed to make.
In an annual speech to an audience of financiers at London’s Mansion House, Woods said City firms would become more complicated as a result of the restructuring they would need to undertake." 

6. We are hamstrung. Our own industries and businesses can wait no longer. We are losing jobs daily to Europe due to the uncertainty. We will either have to comply with EU or US trade protocols in order to export to those two major blocs. Trump has shown that he will give us no favours. The EU is becoming increasingly irritated at the juvenile "negotiating" antics of Grinning David Davis, and Jester Boris Johnson - the UK's diplomatic team; and irritated by the vague slogans trotted out by PM Theresa May. We are close to the point where the EU will simply get bored and leave us to sink or swim, as a once great, now minor player, on the world stage. We cannot do deals with the other nations until our position with the EU is clear. 
*****

Can we think of any activity or industry that will escape these turbulent, vexed new-trade-deals? No we can't. Each and every product and service is affected. Competitors will flood our products with doubts. We will be tasked with proving and guaranteeing the quality of lonely, independent Britain's offerings; as all Red-Tape, woven over 70 years, is cut away. FREE HURRAH!
Trade deals should be agreed first - then we'll go on to complicated, shared activities like The Channel Tunnel, EU Citizens in Britain and vice-versa, Energy, Defence, Nuclear Weapons, NATO, Interpol, Spies, Airlines, Food, Agriculture, Ports, Tourism, Terrorism, Foreign Students, Customs Posts, VAT and Taxes, NHS, Visas, Film Industry, Entertainment, Language, Broadcasting, Telecoms, Wildlife, Clean air, Clean beaches, Clean water, Fishing quotas, etc etc etc etc etc.

Will our civil servants please temporarily desist from mass suicide until I've finished this article - there might be a way through to sanity. If not, we will hold a mass Hara-Kiri and ritual immolation of public servants, on a bonfire of 70,000 ex-EU agreements, in Whitehall. 
I'm waiting to hear from acclaimed Brexiters: Theresa May, John Redwood, David Davis, Boris-the-Clown, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan-Smith, and Jeremy Corbyn (is he for or against Brexit?) - and of course from Farage; all of whom will doubtless have fully worked out tactics and strategies to solve all these 70,000 problems - in a trice. Do you believe in fairies? 

7. Scotland sells Scotch, Tweed, Salmon, Insurance & Penions, and it sells tourism. It will soon have enough Clean Green Lean Cheap energy to supply the whole UK. It voted REMAIN. The nation wants to stay in Europe - and in the United Kingdom. It cannot do both. As the rapid decline of the UK becomes evident and irreversible, as our industries drain away while all our ex-global partners cleave to the EU and/or the USA, Scotland will see that we are a weak prop to depend on. Scotland will quit the United Kingdom, to avoid being dragged under. About 19.5 million people identify as Scottish:

Scotland   4,446,000 (2011)

(Scottish descent only)
[2]
United StatesB   6,006,955 & 5,393,554[3][4]
CanadaC            4,719,850[5]
Australia           1,792,600[6]
EnglandD          795,000
Argentina          100,000
Chile                 80,000
France               45,000
Poland               15,000
New ZealandF    12,792[7]
Isle of Man        2,403[8]
Hong KongG      1,459[9][10][11]


8. When Scotland leaves the UK, Northern Ireland will join southern Ireland and the EU. The Belfast Diaspora is estimated as 10 million. It too will quit the UK. They do not want to go back 25 years into civil-war and have a hard-border that blocks trade, commerce and kinship. We will lose Belfast. Its future lies in Europe. The EU might be large enough to be able to persuade Trump to drop the 300% import-duty on Belfast's Bombardier aeroplanes; the UK has tried and failed to appease or mitigate his America First policy.

9. Although 60% of Londoners voted REMAIN, it is unlikely that Greater London will make its own pact with Europe. The conurbation, most of south-east England, will probably go down with the ship. London is perhaps the ship. But, The City of London, The Square Mile, has its own government and mayor and has been independent for hundreds of years. It has done trade deals with most European cities for centuries. Rather than lose its position in the world, The City is likely to act as a City State and make its own trading terms with the EU. Greater London, with 5 million families, could be saved by being pulled along in its wake. Even the most fervent QUITTERS didn't vote for penury and bankruptcy. Why should London follow the North East and Lincolnshire into decades of poverty? 

10. PARTITION THE UK: Finally, the solution might be to remember the Partition of India in 1947; which created Pakistan for Muslims and India for Hindus.   We could split Great Britain's 63 million population between LEAVE (Wales with Birmingham perhaps?) and REMAIN areas. The BREXITERS could cast off all the burdensome chains of EU contracts and sail off from Cardiff into the sunset to make buccaneering deals around the globe. The REMAINERS could re-group, clustered around City-States and remain a member of the European Union with all 70,000 trade protocols restored. The two regions, both 30 million strong, could take time, decades even, to create mutually acceptable trade deals. Will they both be nuclear powers? Will it require a Customs Barrier? Peace in our Time.

MEASURING: How shall we price-up the consequences? Employment statistics are collected often and, with great caution, are almost reliable. I suggest we count jobs gained and jobs lost - valued at the UK average wage of £27,000 a year. So, it becomes a head count of primary, secondary and tertiary jobs. 


THE DIVORCE BILL - Mel Cooper asks "How much?"
My understanding of the divorce payment is that the UK as the 3rd largest Member and active participant has contractually underwritten our Membership share of the costs of hundreds of projects that run till at least 2020, and some, such as Airbus, science, education and medical projects, which are long term. The partnership argument is that had we quit 5 years ago, the EU would have formed smaller projects without relying on our cash-input. Some of those project funds would have been spent in the UK. So arriving at a precise settlement is complicated – but not unsolvable. It seems to be agreed by all that we do have obligations to pay, as we are quitting in the middle of the current 2014-20 budget period – but how much? Amounts mentioned range from Euro15B to Euro100B. If we pay our annual net Euro9B for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 – that’s Euro36 billion. But the major long term projects we will quit, will double or treble the amount. Best guess is $70 Billion.


The total EU Budget for 2014-20 is Euro1,087,197,000,000 (euro1.1 trillion). Member States pay in about 1% of their GDP.

ec.europa.eu › European Commission › Budget
Mid-term review/revision of the Multiannual financial framework 2014-2020. 'I am proud that the EU budget has allowed us to meet political priorities, to ensure ...
(EUR million - current prices)

COMMITMENT APPROPRIATIONS
2017
Total
2014-20
1. Smart and Inclusive Growth
73 512
513 563
1a: Competitiveness for growth and jobs
19 925
142 130
1b: Economic, social and territorial cohesion
53 587
371 433
2. Sustainable Growth: Natural Resources
60 191
420 034
of which: Market related expenditure and direct payments
44 146
308 734
3. Security and citizenship
2 578
17 725
4. Global Europe
9 432
66 262
5. Administration
9 918
69 584
of which: Administrative expenditure of the institutions
8 007
56 224
6. Compensations
0
29
TOTAL COMMITMENT APPROPRIATIONS
155 631
1 087 197
as a percentage of GNI
1.04%
1.03%
TOTAL PAYMENT APPROPRIATIONS
142 906
1 026 287
as a percentage of GNI
0.95%
0.98%
Margin available
0.28%
0.24%
Own Resources Ceiling as a percentage of GNI
1.23%
1.22%

MAY BE YES MAY BE NO - BREXIT STALLS   - Media and Moguls behind Brexit. I believe that the main driver for these super-rich offshore villains is to continue to evade tax. There is £2 to £3 trillion of UK assets hidden in tax-havens - which could be repatriated if HMRC cared to collect it.

Nick Clegg also lists in How to Stop Brexit the names of the rich men behind the scenes. He recommends promoting Sir John Major to lead us out of the dark quagmire, to the sunny uplands of EU cooperation. Clegg fails to mention the tax-haven hoards; which would pay all our deficits and reverse Tory austerity. 

Brexit could trigger next financial crisis, warns London Stock Exchange chief - 18th Oct 17 - Mr Rolet has said that Brexit could cost the City of London up to 230,000 jobs if the Government fails to provide a clear plan for post-Brexit operations

Brexit will be 'like the Blitz', OECD chief tells UK - 17th Oct 17 - Britain faces a ‘bumpy road ahead’ but must ‘stay calm and carry on’, the head of the influential organisation warns

City A.M. Thursday 26 October 2017 11:41am

Pound drops after retail sales fall at fastest rate since financial crisis  Helen Cahill  I am a reporter for City A.M. Email: helen.cahill@cityam.com


DAILY T
ELEGRAPH - Brexit tariffs – Cars & Parts are charged at 9.8%

Arron Banks - who financed Farage and Brexit is also offshore, like the media owners. The EU is investigating Russian links and "loans".
His Wikipedia entry includes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arron_Banks

Arron Banks -  Tax avoidance
[edit]
Following intensified media scrutiny after his initial donation to UKIP, it emerged that Banks was involved in mining in southern Africa and had connections to Belize. Banks also has connections to companies based in Gibraltar and the Isle of Man, and close connections with family members of the Belizean Prime Minister.

[34] However, following remarks made by The Thick of It creator Armando Iannucci on BBC One's Question Time programme, Banks denied owning a company in Belize or seeking to avoid UK tax "via any device". Describing the comments as "clearly defamatory", he threatened legal action towards Iannucci if he did not get an apology within a week.[61][needs update]

Asked if his companies paid full corporation tax, Banks "I paid over £2.5m of income tax last year ... My insurance business, like a lot of them, is based in Gibraltar but I've got UK businesses as well that deal with customers and pay tax like everyone else."[34] One of the UK businesses of which Banks is director, Rock Services Ltd, had a turnover of £19.7m last year and paid corporation tax of £12,000. The company deducted £19.6m in "administrative expenses", and the main activity appears to be "recharge of goods and services" with Southern Rock Insurance Company.[34] Southern Rock Insurance states on its website that it underwrites policies for the customers of GoSkippy.com, which is run by Banks. Because it is based in Gibraltar, there is little information available on it.
Rock Services and Southern Rock Insurance's ultimate holding company is Rock Holdings Ltd, a company based on the Isle of Man.[34] Banks has also been a "substantial" shareholder in STM Fidecs, of which Leave.EU is a subsidiary; the company claims to be specialising in "international wealth protection", maximising tax efficiencies for entrepreneurs and expatriates and of "structuring international groups, particularly separating and relocating intellectual property and treasury functions to low- or no-tax jurisdictions".[62]

Panama Papers[edit]

Following the release of the Panama PapersThe Guardian wrote that "Banks, who has given Ukip more than £1m and is spearheading the anti-EU referendum campaign, appears as the shareholder of a BVI company called PRI Holdings Limited. Shares from PRI were also transferred to Elizabeth Bilney, the chief executive of Leave.EU. PRI Holdings is in turn the sole shareholder of African Strategic Resources Limited, which is a British Virgin Islands company managed in Gibraltar."[63

My question today is - where has that little rat Farage gone to ground. Who pushed him onto our TV screens and front-pages for 12 years? There must be a major PR company behind the campaign. Who in the BBC kept and keeps inviting this 5th columnist onto political opinion programmes? Will he retire on a generous pension to Moscow, St Petersburg or Trump Tower as Britain goes bust over Brexit and declines into penury?  Is Farage another offshore-no-tax-villain?  

And NOW! The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists ICIJ has published the Paradise Papers in November 2017. When will OECD nations collect all the back-taxes from the several hundred thousand cheating crooks cited in these papers, in the Panama Papers, in the Cyprus Bank scandal and in the Zurich HSBC accounts – and the rest? 99% of the $32 trillion offshore capital has been siphoned from rich OECD countries, using phoney, made-up, fraudulent, criminal accounting. Repatriate it all and jail the crooks and their enablers.  

Manafort offshore - Panama Papers - tax and wire-fraud - funny money.

Like the gangster Al Capone, jailed not for violence and murder but for tax-fraud, Paul Manafort and friends are being threatened with 30 to 60 years in prison and confiscation of all the capital (est. $70 million) laundered through funny-money offshore companies, used to distort the US election and to evade tax on foreign fees. Manafort's web of Ukrainian/Russian "fees" and companies has been tracked via the Panama Papers; and all his bank transactions - in his own, his family's and false names - have been tracked, I guess via Homeland Security, CIA, FBI etc. Government spies can trace ALL business transactions, ALL telecoms and ALL secret assignments. Ask 
Edward Snowden how such universal searches, spanning decades, are done. There is no hiding place.

MANAFORT INDICTMENT  - The Full Text. The confiscations of money and houses are in the last few pages. Manafort's web of intrigue makes Arron Bank's complicated offshore maze look like a childish (and perhaps a blameless) game.

The champion maze makers remain, of course, ENRON - who stole billions of dollars, went bust, went to prison and had the world's top auditors, Arthur Andersen, (now Accenture) struck-off. Despite one of the world's most insistent, long and expensive PR campaigns, the reassuring, happy media soundbite "...complex tax-avoidance - which is of course completely legal" was and is wrong advice. Fiddling the books, making up funny-money invoices and baseless charges, was and is a crime. The Manafort Indictment will change the tax-free world of offshore loot. Wait for the knock on the door as major governments realise how much they can collect in back-taxes, and fix their deficits.

I believe that BREXIT is driven by such offshore tax-evaders, desperate to avoid, or evade, the closing net of EU tax and bank laws.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/05/paradise-papers-leak-reveals-secrets-of-world-elites-hidden-wealth

List of people and companies named in the Paradise Papers - Wikipedia
People and companies named in the Paradise Papers as connected to offshore companies. Contents. [hide]. 1 Government officials. 1.1 Heads of state; 1.2 ...


Offshore law firms - Appleby HQ is Bermuda
"Paradise Papers leaked from Appleby.

NB for later: 
This is a power network that involves WikiLeaks and Farage, and Cambridge Analytica and Farage, and Robert Mercer and Farage. Steve Bannon, former vice president of Cambridge Analytica, and Farage. It’s Nigel Farage and Brexit and Trump and Cambridge Analytica and WikiLeaks… and, if the Senate intelligence committee and the House intelligence committee and the FBI are on to anything at all, somewhere in the middle of all that, Russia.  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/28/trump-assange-bannon-farage-bound-together-in-unholy-alliance



LETTER TO THE GUARDIAN 7 NOV 17 -  TAX-LAW: “Outrage as scale of tax avoidance by global elite is laid bare” – Guardian 7 Nov 17) The Guardian, Panorama and the ICIJ could help ensure tax-collection and capital-flight repatriation of £2.5 trillion for the UK and $30 trillion to the other countries of origin, by pressing governments to apply existing tax-law. In all OECD countries these 100 year old laws, which apply to ordinary tax-payers, governing tax-allowances on transactions include: (1) NORMAL COMMERCIAL PRICES (2) AT ARMS LENGTH (3) WHOLLY NECESSARY FOR THE BUSINESS (4) NOT DEVISED TO REDUCE TAX. Applying these legal tests would set aside all “complex tax avoidance” which is simply clumsy, idiotic fraudulent accounting and conspiracy. What the taxes should be levied on are the profits and gains made in the tax-region (e.g. Apple sales in the UK – BBC fees paid to stars, subject to PAYE) – regardless of the nonsensical Group Accounts, funny-money charges and asset transfers. We are asked to believe, for example, that Lord Ashcroft gave-up £200 million to hapless Trustees. Do you believe in Fairies? It is time to grow up. The UK Cabinet has sacked most of our intelligent tax-investigators with the skills and diligence to prove tax-illegality, so we should simply issue assessments from 1980 (the big bang) to date, confiscate the assets, and have the non-tax-payers prove that they don’t owe the taxes. A 500 person fully resourced unit of tax-inspectors should be formed, today, to repatriate the UK’s £2.5 trillion (i.e. 2 years Budget – or 8 million good jobs). First – list and tax all UK VIPs who use tax-havens, starting with MPs and the judiciary.

Noel Hodson - Director
Tax Reconciliations, Oxford UK,

Nowhere to hide? 16 NOV 2017. If the lead Brexiters, including politicians and media owners, are motivated by tax-evasion, they are likely to be unmasked. 

ICIJ this week have ripped the fraudulent disguises from more guilty faces, being 556,000 more funny-money Trusts set up by Asiaciti, which is an offshore advice network founded by an Australian. This adds to the publication of 13.4 million Paradise Papers, millions of Panama Papers, thousands of Lichenstein corporate "industrial scale" tax-evasion, 7,000 clients of HSBC Zurich, and of hundreds of other "wealth managers" who hide assets from tax-collectors. 

The USA is investigating the Trump-Team collusion with the Kremlin.  EU authorities are investigating Farage and Co's links - on suspicion that his Brexit campaign is Russian funded (via Arron Banks - see above) and aided by the Kremlin Troll Factory, churning out tens of thousands of false-news items and false Twitter endorsements. Much of the funds for these activities are channelled through Russian favoured Cyprus banks. 

No wonder that the drivers of the Leave campaign are getting desperate, as the EU, USA and now even the perfidious servants of the tax-evading UK, are closing in on their criminal activities. The (offshore tax-free un-British) owners of the Telegraph are stirring up violence against noted Remain MPs; tactics employed by the Nazis. 

I say "criminal activities", contrary to all UK media trotting out the PR campaign message for 2 decades, the mantra "tax-avoidance, which is of course strictly legal", because with 40 years professional experience I know that the bookkeeping transactions, the faux legal contracts, the contrived invoices with false prices, management charges, the false valuations of assets, the inflated "interest" on loans, the dummy directors, the signed declarations, bent audits, and the "reasons" given for huge cash and asset transfers, are all illegal in tax law, in all OECD countries where the wealth originates. Al Capone was jailed for such offences - and Paul Manafort is facing 30 to 60 years in jail for fiddling the books. Fraudulent conspiracy, such as is required to transfer assets to tax-havens and hide the subsequent  income, is still a major crime. Whatever Brexiter-tax-evaders want to believe. 

ICIJ 16 NOV 2017 : Offshore trusts are often inscrutable legal instruments with blurred official ownership. The details are rarely a matter of public record. Trusts allow the publicity-shy to act out of sight of creditors, ex-spouses or courts.
Asiaciti has specialized in establishing trusts in Samoa and the Cook Islands, nations of 200,000 and 11,000 people, respectively. Within 24 hours and for less than $300, a client could buy “ ‘state of the art’ offshore products” to build and preserve wealth, according to an archived version of Asiaciti’s website.

MORE ARTICLES:

·                     MAY BE YES MAY BE NO - BREXIT STALLS
·                      
·                     STOP-BREXIT! DO NOT BANKRUPT BRITAIN!
·                      
·                     BREXIT SHRUGGED

·                     BREXIT BANKRUPTING BRITAIN
·                      
·                     BEST FOR BRITAIN - HUNG PARLIAMENT
·                      
·                     WHO PAID FOR BREXIT?
·                      
·                     BREXIT WEEK: TEARS BEFORE BEDTIME
·                      
·                     YOUR DUAL UK & EU ASSOCIATE CITIZENSHIP
·                      
·                     THE UNITED STATES OF EUROPE
·                      
·                     USA WANTS EU COLLAPSE - WHY?
·                      
·                     BREXIT BATTLE - TAX-FREE NON-DOMS
·                      
·                     ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE
·                      
·                     REVERSE THE REFERENDUM! DEBATE
·                      
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