Wednesday, 11 October 2017

BREXIT WILL BANKRUPT THE UK

Brexit zealots believe the UK will be better-off after Brexit, even after a Hard-Brexit, or indeed, after a No-Deal-Brexit that takes us over "The Cliff Edge". These enthusiasts are daring, entrepreneurial Brits, who fear nothing and see only opportunities when change occurs. But, I think the secret, tax-haven Brexit sponsors are back-pedalling as fast as they can from EU rules to close tax-havens - which would make them pay-tax. "Only the little people pay tax". Tax-evaders are desperate to Leave and pay no tax - whatever the damage to the UK. 

TAX-FREE LORDS - MOVE YOUR MONEY ON-SHORE

Timid REMAINERS, such as I, see disruption, disengagement from 500 million wealthy EU consumers and eventually our national bankruptcy, unless we stop the Brexit process - now. 

Because the UK government hasn't yet begun to count the costs, this article can only indicate the colossal irreversible damage to the UK economy. 

EU Population - details

Total EU Population508,191,116100.000.261,313,888
I use the number 500,000 souls, for the 27 remaining Member States, as a post-Brexit total, taking out the 65 million Brits, then allowing 5 years for negotiation, adding births, immigration and new member-states. The EU trading-bloc is the largest, richest, most educated consumer-group - ever. The UK is "doing a Ratner" - insulting its customers and shooting itself in the foot.

These are examples of what will impoverish us:

1. Currency Devaluation. Since the June 2016 Brexit Referendum, sterling has fallen 20%. The UK has a global import bill that is £90 billion more than our exports. The cost is £17 billion a year, (£17B / 32M households = £531 per family) every year. And it could get worse. Our living costs are soaring. This devaluation cost will not be recovered. It is money down the Brexit drain. 
JOBS: £17,000,000,000 / £27,000 average UK pay = 629,000 jobs.


2. Isolation and competition. Some of our top exports are vulnerable to being easily picked off by rivals and raiders. 

The City, must retain European Passporting Rights to keep its global position. We have until 29 March 2019 to get our act in order. Most banks and even ancient Lloyds of London are already opening new EU centres and EU trading companies. The City employs 454,700 souls and pays £70 billion UK tax annually - year after year. Cities that want our brokers, banks and banks jobs, include Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin and Madrid. All large EU cities will offer incentives for our 1,000 years old City to relocate. That's £70 billion lost, year after year, up for grabs. European cities will offer personal incentives and easy access to the 500,000,000 EU Citizens - linking with, in turn, their long established access to neighbouring markets in Russia, Asia and The Middle and Far East.


Barclays
Goldman Sachs
Lloyds of London (insurance)
Lloyds Bank
HSBC
and hundreds more.

Estimated by The City - job losses (see below) 230,000 jobs. (230,000 x £27,000 =£6.2 Billion for 10 years = £62 billion)

******

Top end industries lose jobs

Boeing Aircraft Corporation has persuaded Trump to slap a 300% (three-times the price) tariff on the UK's Bombardier aircraft. That means US customers will have to pay 4 times what we ask - with 3/4 going to the US Treasury. No country will buy our planes if we can't supply and maintain UK aircraft in America; they will assume we have lost our reliability and world position. 

In the same week, BAE systems is putting 2,000 specialist engineers out of work, from the Euro-Typhoon-Fighter project and presumably our involvement in the £4 billion a year  European Airbus Consortium, employing 6,000 in the UK with 110,000 associated UK jobs, will swiftly end. Europe doesn't want a partner who spurns Europeans. 

To keep Nissan in Britain, Brexiters have promised to pay any increased tariffs on exports to the EU. WTO car tariff is 9.8% on average £19K Nissan is £1,862 on 500,000 EU Nissan cars = £931 million per year bill to UK Gov. Nissan in the North-East employs 8,000 which in turn supports another 32,000 supply chain jobs. Such UK Government subsidies are unsustainable. How long before Trump and the EU slap on a 300% tariff?  Potential Job losses 40,000

These are the other UK business categories, indicating the 70,000 items to be re-visited and re-negotiated:
 http://resources.companieshouse.gov.uk/sic/

A summary list:

Contents Section A Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 5 Section B Mining and Quarrying 5 Section C Manufacturing 5 Section D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 9 Section E Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities 9 Section F Construction 9 Section G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 10 Section H Transportation and storage 12 Section I Accommodation and food service activities 12 Section J Information and communication 12 Section K Financial and insurance activities 13 Section L Real estate activities 13 Section M Professional, scientific and technical activities 13 Section N Administrative and support service activities 14 Section O Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 15 Section P Education 15 Section Q Human health and social work activities 15 Section R Arts, entertainment and recreation 15 Section S Other service activities 15 Section T Activities of households as employers; undifferentiated goods- and services-producing activities of households for own use 16 Section U Activities of extraterritorial organisations and bodies. 

Here are the VAT categories: - summarised. We will have to renegotiate them all, worldwide, to agree WTO or other terms.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rates-of-vat-on-different-goods-and-services


Everything you might want to know about the UK's trade with the EU ...


https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

15 Aug 2017 - Exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth £240 billion in 2016, while exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about £310 billion. ... Germany has the biggest trade deficit with us— in 2015 it sold about £25 billion more to us than we sold to it, according to the latest UK data.

Kwik-Stats - It is very complex. Lets start by assuming "No Deal" on WTO rules and tariffs (see link) replaces EU no-tariffs with an average of 10% on UK exports to the EU. That is 10% x £240 billion = £24 billion = 888 thousand jobs, annually.

Equally, the EU will lose 10% of its sales to the UK, = £31 billion = 1.1 million jobs. However, their lost jobs are not our problem. The UK will lose the jobs on internal distribution and servicing the imported goods and services. Using the German Cars imports calculation below, where £486M of imports costs us 4,500 UK jobs; means losing 64,000 jobs. We have accounted for German cars so, say, 60,000 UK imports-handling jobs lost


World Trade Organization (logo and wordmark).svg
WTO members and observers.svg
  Members
  Members, dually represented by the EU
  Observers
  Non-participant states

Formation1 January 1995; 22 years ago
TypeInternational trade organization
PurposeRegulate international trade
HeadquartersCentre William RappardGenevaSwitzerland
Coordinates46.12°N 6.09°E
Region served
Worldwide
Membership
164 member states[1]
Official language
EnglishFrenchSpanish[2]
Roberto Azevêdo
Budget
196 million Swiss francs (approx. 209 million US$) in 2011.[3]
Staff
640[4]
Websitewww.wto.org

No fly Europe: What deals do we need to keep our planes up in Europe?

STOP BREXIT. This article takes about 40 hours to write. If I /we had 1,000 hours, I could list thousands of companies that will lose millions of jobs if Brexit proceeds. Most industries predict substantial job losses:


BREXIT: The UK Chemical Industry Response - Chemical Watchfiles.chemicalwatch.com/CIA%20Brexit%20survey.pdf

Industry Response. Results of the CIA member survey on Brexit ... CIA Brexit survey overview . ....UK government policies to increase R&D spending .

Food industry shaken by hard Brexit prospects, survey reveals ...https://www.theguardian.com › Business › Food & drink industry

12 Oct 2016 - Concern grows over price rises, import duties and staff retention from fallout of ... Food and drink is by far the largest manufacturing sector in the UK, ... what Brexit means for the industry, added: “Government and industry ...

UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show | Business ...https://www.theguardian.com › Business › Manufacturing sector

8 Jan 2017 - UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show .... government is able to provide greater certainty and the industry is able to manage ...

Assessment of the UK post-referendum economy - Office for National ...https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/.../september201...

21 Sep 2016 - The view from ONS of the emerging picture of the UK economy after the ... It uses a range of ONS data including prices, trade, employment and retail ... Some outside surveys carried out in the days and weeks ... The small decline in July was across most manufacturing industries, ... macro@ons.gsi.gov.ukHM Treasury analysis shows leaving EU would cost British ... - Gov.ukhttps://www.gov.uk/government/.../hm-treasury-analysis-shows-leaving-eu-would-cos...

18 Apr 2016 - Britain will be worse off by £4300 a year per household if Britain votes to leave ... HM Treasury analysis shows leaving EU would cost British households ... Both the services industry and advanced manufacturing are reliant on ...

Can we assume that UK.Gov is adding up the numbers? Will they tell us? 

3. Sitting Stuck Duck: Until the UK gets its trading relationship with Europe into contracts (we have about 70,000 different product and services contracts agreed, over 60 years, with the EU at present); no major trading-bloc can conclude new contracts with us. Because --- such new direct contracts with the UK will have to be examined for conflicts with, for example, Canada's existing contracts with the EU. Other nations or groups of nations are not rushing to join the UK in a lemming-like suicide pact, over the cliff-edge. They might be prepared to die for their own country - but are not prepared to die for ours. This is not war; its business. 

Like Trump, if we beg other OECD nations to make trade deals - they will sadly see the opportunity to slap 300% tariffs on our goods and services. Standing alone in the world, bruised, battered but unbowed, we won't have a leg to stand on, or a friend to lean on.  

We are stuck and paralysed. 

4.  But say BREXITERS - "for example BMW earn billions of Euros in exports to Britain". Yes they do; along with Mercedes, VW and others. Bloomberg estimates those sales represent 18,000 German jobs. A lot to lose. But, without post-Brexit trade agreements we and Germany will never unravel the maze of international parts imported and exported to make a right-hand-drive BMW and supply the servicing network and employee exchanges. Tariff free EU free-markets, built from 1950 onwards, smooth most of these problems - until Brexit. After Brexit, all the trans-border parts will be subject to a range of tariffs and of VAT. The queues at Custom and Excise borders will be long and tedious. The paper-work will be monumental. It will take years and years and years to sort out. There are 150 BMW showrooms & servicing - say, 30 employees = 4,500 jobs at risk.

Similarly for medicines - and medical equipment - and medical staff. All licensed to work in other countries. All such licenses will be cancelled and have to be reset - worldwide. As with the 300% Trump tariff, all trading partners will seek to drive hard bargains. The UK will fight back - and find imports we can charge to those combative countries. Say, 20 years of detailed negotiations before we can sell Anadin-Extra in Rome or Los Angeles. Or before we can supply fine surgeons to foreign countries - and hire skilled people from overseas. 

5. City jobs will go to Europe by Christmas: Guardian 5 Oct 17 "A top official at the Bank of England has warned the government it has less than 12 weeks to agree a transition deal with the EU to prevent City firms starting to move jobs and business out of the UK.


Sam Woods, a deputy governor at the Bank, said City firms would activate their Brexit contingency plans if there was no deal on a transition period by Christmas which would mitigate the impact of a hard Brexit in March 2019. Woods also repeated his warning of the strain being put on the Bank’s ability to police the financial sector as a result of the changes firms needed to make.
In an annual speech to an audience of financiers at London’s Mansion House, Woods said City firms would become more complicated as a result of the restructuring they would need to undertake." 
6. We are hamstrung. Our own industries and businesses can wait no longer. We are losing jobs daily to Europe due to the uncertainty. We will either have to comply with EU or US trade protocols in order to export to those two major blocs. Trump has shown that he will give us no favours. The EU is becoming increasingly irritated at the juvenile "negotiating" antics of Grinning David Davis, and Jester Boris Johnson - the UK's diplomatic team; and irritated by the vague slogans trotted out by PM Theresa May. We are close to the point where the EU will simply get bored and leave us to sink or swim, as a once great, now minor player, on the world stage. We cannot do deals with the other nations until our position with the EU is clear. 
*****

Can we think of any activity or industry that will escape these turbulent new-trade-deals? No we can't. Each and every product and service is affected. Competitors will flood our products with doubts. We will be tasked with proving  and guaranteeing the quality of lonely, independent Britain's offerings; as all Red-Tape is cut away. 

Trade first - then we'll go on to complicated, shared activities like The Channel Tunnel, EU Citizens in Britain and vice-versa, Energy, Defence, Nuclear Weapons, NATO, Interpol, Spies, Airlines, Food, Agriculture, Ports, Tourism, Terrorism, Foreign Students, Customs Posts, VAT and Taxes, NHS, Visas, Film Industry, Entertainment, Language, Broadcasting, Telecoms, Wildlife, Clean air, Clean beaches, Clean water, Fishing quotas, etc etc etc etc etc. Will our civil servants please temporarily desist from mass suicide until I've finished this article - there might be a way through to sanity. If not, we will hold a mass Hara-Kiri and ritual immolation of public servants, on a bonfire of 70,000 ex-EU agreements, in Whitehall. 

I'm waiting to hear from acclaimed Brexiters: Tight-Lipped-Theresa, Grim-John-Redwood, Laughing-David-Davis, Bumbling-Boris-the-Clown, Et-Tu-Gove, Iain-Kick-a-Cripple-Duncan-Smith, Commissar-Corbyn - and of course from Fascist-Farage, all of whom will doubtless have fully worked out tactics and strategies to solve all these 70,000 problems - in a trice. Do you believe in fairies? 

7. Scotland sells Scotch, Tweed, Salmon, Insurance & Penions, and it sells tourism. It will soon have enough Clean Green Cheap energy to supply the whole UK. It voted REMAIN. The nation wants to stay in Europe - and in the United Kingdom. It cannot do both. As the rapid decline of the UK becomes evident and irreversible, as our industries drain away while all our ex-global partners cleave to the EU and/or the USA, Scotland will see that we are a weak prop to depend on. Scotland will quit the United Kingdom, to avoid being dragged under. 

Regions with significant populations
 Scotland   4,446,000 (2011)
(Scottish descent only)[2]
 United StatesB6,006,955 & 5,393,554[3][4]
 CanadaC4,719,850[5]
 Australia1,792,600[6]
 EnglandD795,000
 Argentina100,000
 Chile80,000
 France45,000
 Poland15,000
 New ZealandF12,792[7]
 Isle of Man2,403[8]
 Hong KongG1,459[9][10][11]

8. When Scotland leaves the UK, Northern Ireland will join southern Ireland and the EU. The Belfast Diaspora is estimated as 10 million. It too will quit the UK. They do not want to go back 25 years into civil-war and have a hard-border that blocks trade, commerce and kinship. We will lose Belfast. Its future lies in Europe. The EU might be large enough to be able to persuade Trump to drop the 300% import-duty on Belfast's aeroplanes; the UK has tried and failed to appease or mitigate his America First policy.

9. Although 60% of Londoners voted REMAIN, it is unlikely that Greater London will make its own pact with Europe. The conurbation, most of south-east England, will probably go down with the ship. London is perhaps the ship. But, The City of London, The Square Mile, has its own government and mayor and has been independent for hundreds of years. It has done trade deals with most European cities for centuries. Rather than lose its position in the world, The City is likely to act as a City State and make its own trading terms with the EU. Greater London, with 5 million families, could be saved by being pulled along in its wake. Even the most fervent QUITTERS didn't vote for penury and bankruptcy. Why should London follow the North East and Lincolnshire into decades of poverty? 

10. Finally, the solution might be to remember the Partition of India in 1947; which created Pakistan for Muslims and India for Hindus.   We could split Great Britain's 63 million population between LEAVE (Wales with Birmingham perhaps?) and REMAIN areas. The BREXITERS could cast off all the burdensome chains of EU contracts and sail off from Cardiff into the sunset to make buccaneering deals around the globe. The REMAINERS could re-group, clustered around City-States and remain a member of the European Union with all 70,000 trade protocols restored. The two regions, both 30 million strong, could take time, decades even, to create mutually acceptable trade deals. Will they both be nuclear powers? Will it require a Customs Barrier? Peace in our Time. 

How shall we price-up the consequences? Employment statistics are collected often and, with caution, are almost reliable. I suggest we count jobs gained and jobs lost - valued at the UK average wage of £27,000 a year. So it becomes a head count of primary, secondary and tertiary jobs. 

STOP BREXIT - or we are doomed. 

*****

THE DIVORCE BILL - Mel Cooper asks "How much?"


My understanding of the divorce payment is that the UK as the 3rd largest Member and active participant has contractually underwritten our Membership share of costs of hundreds of projects that run till at least 2020 and some, such as Airbus, science, education and medical projects, which are long term. The partnership argument is that had we quit 5 years ago, the EU would have formed smaller projects without relying on our cash-input. Some of those project funds would have been spent in the UK. So arriving at a precise settlement is complicated – but not unsolvable. It seems to be agreed by all that we do have obligations to pay, as we are quitting in the middle of the current 2014-20 budget period – but how much? Amounts mentioned range from E15B to E100B. If we pay our annual net E9B for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 – that’s E36 billion. But the major long term projects we will quit, will double or treble the amount. Best guess is $70 Billion.

The total Budget 2014-20 is Euro 1 087 197 000 000 (1.1 trillion)

Multiannual Financial Framework-European Commission

ec.europa.eu › European Commission › Budget
Mid-term review/revision of the Multiannual financial framework 2014-2020. 'I am proud that the EU budget has allowed us to meet political priorities, to ensure ...


(EUR million - current prices)
COMMITMENT APPROPRIATIONS
2017
Total
2014-20
1. Smart and Inclusive Growth
73 512
513 563
1a: Competitiveness for growth and jobs
19 925
142 130
1b: Economic, social and territorial cohesion
53 587
371 433
2. Sustainable Growth: Natural Resources
60 191
420 034
of which: Market related expenditure and direct payments
44 146
308 734
3. Security and citizenship
2 578
17 725
4. Global Europe
9 432
66 262
5. Administration
9 918
69 584
of which: Administrative expenditure of the institutions
8 007
56 224
6. Compensations
0
29
TOTAL COMMITMENT APPROPRIATIONS
155 631
1 087 197
as a percentage of GNI
1.04%
1.03%
TOTAL PAYMENT APPROPRIATIONS
142 906
1 026 287
as a percentage of GNI
0.95%
0.98%
Margin available
0.28%
0.24%
Own Resources Ceiling as a percentage of GNI
1.23%
1.22%



  • MAY BE YES MAY BE NO - BREXIT STALLS   - Media and Moguls behind Brexit. I believe that the main driver for these super-rich offshore villains is to continue to evade tax. There is £2 to £3 trillion of UK assets hidden in tax-havens - which could be repatriated if HMRC cared to collect it.
  • NIck Clegg also lists the names of the rich men behind the scenes. He recommends promoting Sir John Major to lead us out of the dark quagmire, to the sunny uplands of EU cooperation. Clegg fails to mention the tax-haven hoards; which would pay all our deficits and reverse Tory austerity. 
  • How To Stop Brexit (And Make Britain Great Again), EPUB eBook

Brexit could trigger next financial crisis, warns London Stock Exchange chief - 18th Oct 17

Mr Rolet has said that Brexit could cost the City of London up to 230,000 jobs if the Government fails to provide a clear plan for post-Brexit operations

Brexit will be 'like the Blitz', OECD chief tells UK - 17th Oct 17

Britain faces a ‘bumpy road ahead’ but must ‘stay calm and carry on’, the head of the influential organisation warns

TELEGRAPH - Brexit tariffs - Cars 9.8%

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